Either way, the referendum is now a fait accompli. It appears that Russian President Vladimir Putin has won, at least, his interim goal of demonstrating that the Crimea, home of warm-water ports used by the Russian navy, is solidly part of his sphere of influence. The West has been forced to redraw lines in the sand, trying to push against, at least, a formal incorporation of the Crimea into Russia. US President Barack Obama said that the referendum's result "would never be recognised" by the US. The European Union also issued a strongly-worded statement. The question, of course, is if these words will add up to anything when compared to the facts on the ground. Russia's de facto annexation of provinces of its southern neighbour Georgia that had large ethnically Russian populations, survived such condemnations with almost insulting ease. The Russians have also cast their eyes on areas of eastern Ukraine, such as Kharkov and Donetsk, with substantial Russian populations; on the day that the Crimean referendum was held, both those cities saw pro-Russian and anti-Kiev rallies. The new government in Kiev has contributed to the chaos by including far-Right Ukrainian nationalists in their number whose statements and beliefs give rise to legitimate fears among the Ukraine's minority populations. Recent moves towards centralisation by Kiev have become the focus for anger among Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east. Mr Putin will cast his eye over the area and see strategic cities that are ripe for a Crimea-style intervention.
Unfortunate though it may seem, much now depends on Mr Putin's own self-control. While the West may bluster about the Crimea, few expect that it will bestir itself to do anything about it. If Russian incursions into eastern Ukraine, however, multiply and become common, then the pressure on the West - and on Europe's uncrowned leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel - will only grow. The European Union's eastern members will expect a show of strength that gives them some security in their dealings with Russia. Already, a Polish consulate in eastern Ukraine has been attacked. Mr Putin seems to have won the hands he played so far. The question is whether he can resist raising the stakes.