Hopping from hope to hope

Once in a while I give in to the great temptation to say “I told you so”. In early April 2014, I predicted that the BJP would win 31-32 per cent of vote share in the upcoming general elections on the basis of its two-pronged campaign.  In 2014, the BJP committed itself to delivering great infrastructure and employment opportunities, while at the same time, committing to refashioning India’s cultural DNA to mesh with the RSS model. The former commitment was designed to pull in new vote share while the latter ensured that the faithful remained committed to the vision of a Ram Temple, cow protection and the like.

I also predicted the BJP would not be able to deliver on either front. Quoting myself, “The hardliner pining for a Hindutva raj will be disappointed. So will the voter who is hoping for miracles in terms of economic growth.”

Five years later, there is no Ram Tem­ple. There are legions of unemployed. In­dia’s largest automobile manufacturer has just cut its production by 25 per cent, suggesting that there isn’t much growth either.

Of course, the BJP did win 31 per cent vote share in 2014 and this was enough to deliver a parliamentary majority. In hindsight, the key to that campaign’s success was the message of hope. Loud promises of acche din and vikas — 20 million jobs, doubling of farm incomes, Rs 15 lakh in every bank account, etc. was the message that won the election.

In 2014, around 150 million first-time voters exercised their franchise. That huge cohort of 18-22-year-olds voted in the hope of jobs and good days, as the surveys and exit polls showed. A majority of those youngsters voted for the BJP.

Hope won that election. That hope was transmitted to huge crowds, by the mesmerising speeches of a great demagogue. It was delivered house-to-house to individual voters, by the dedicated workers of the world’s largest NGO. Counter-messages were drowned out in social media by the efficient machinery of the BJP’s cyber-cell.

Circa 2019, the first-time voters of 2014 are five years older. Many are unemployed, or selling pakodas perhaps. I don’t recall any survey ever that indicated a widespread aspiration towards selling pakodas.

There has been a huge marketing campaign, buttressed with dubious data, to try and convince everyone that their lives have changed for the better. There is also an anecdotal, but very concrete understanding across many households, that family members remain unemployed.

Will those somewhat older voters keep fai­th with the BJP in the hope that acche di­n will somehow, miraculously, dawn so­m­e­time in the next five years? The answer to that question could swing this election.

That 2014 cohort also has younger siblings. About 135 million voters will be eligible to exercise their franchise for the first time in 2019. Those youngsters will have noted that many of their elder brothers and sisters don’t have worthwhile employment prospects. Will they put their trust in the party that promised so much, and failed their elder siblings? The answer to that question is also critical.

The BJP seems to have abandoned the acche din and vikas planks or at least, it’s been soft-pedalled in the 2019 campaign. This time around, the BJP campaign is centred on pseudo nationalism: To wit, anybody who doesn’t vote for the BJP, or indeed, questions its track record is “anti-national”. That’s an absurdity, given that roughly 70 per cent of India doesn’t vote for the BJP. Sadly perhaps, elections are not decided by the rational.

Balanced against that, it’s the Congress off­ering hope through its NYAY proposal for Basic Income, and through commitm­e­nts to rationalise the goods and services tax, remove “Angel Tax” and curtail the “in­s­pector-raj”. Are those promises believable? Well, if you believed that the BJP wo­uld transfer Rs 15 lakh to every bank account in 2014, you may conceivably believe that the Congress will transfer Rs 6,000 into every 25th bank account in 2019.

Will the average voter vote for hope again? Or will hatred of the “anti-national” triumph?

Twitter: @devangshudatta