Howdy Modi: The PM may be leading the Indian diaspora into uncharted waters

Overseas Indians have long been seen as strategic assets. They can act as mediators and facilitators for improving ties with the countries they are settled in. In 1999, the Indian diaspora in the US played an important role in the withdrawal of the Burton Amendment which sought to cut US aid to India by 25 per cent over its treatment of minorities and human rights record in Kashmir. In 2008, it played a significant role in the smooth passage of the India-US Nuclear Agreement.

It was not always so.

In the early 1990s, the Pakistan lobby dominated Capitol Hill. India could count support among Congressmen on its finger tips. Congressman Gary Ackerman and Senator Larry Pressler were among the few well-known names who spoke up for India. Finally, in the early 1990s, a young diplomat in the Indian Embassy in Washington DC went to the US Justice Department and sought an open document -- a list of people who made and mandatorily declared their donation to political parties. Then he carefully sorted out the Asian-sounding names.

A letter was sent to this shortlist irrespective of whether they supported Republicans or Democrats. It praised them for leadership of their communities and enquired whether the Embassy could occasionally seek their advice on Indian policy towards the US. There was overwhelming response from US-based Indians.

The first exhaustive database of potentially politically influential US-Indians was created in this way.

It was put to good use in the 1990s. Each time a Congressman or Senator moved a pro-Pakistan resolution or spoke critically of India, the US-Indian campaign contributors in his constituency would be informed. They would flood him with protest letters. This was one factor that contributed to the formation of an India Caucus on Capitol Hill. Somewhat similar pressure-tactics were used to limit the damage of critical reportage on India by US newspapers. Their editors received a flood of complaints against their India-based correspondents from their US-Indian “readers”.

“Howdi Mody!” rally in Houston was an amped-up version of these tactics. PM Modi has till now addressed stadia packed with overseas Indians during his visits abroad largely to show-case his personal popularity. He has needed it in the past to wash off the international opprobrium he received for his uninspiring record as Chief Minister of Gujarat. Now he perhaps needs it to compensate for the ruinous state of the Indian economy. However, these orchestrated events also serve as a reminder to the host country of the power and size of the Indian diaspora.

Was the exchange between Prime Minister Modi and the US President merely an over-the-top reciprocation of flattery (“Abki baar, Trump Sarkar” vs. Trump naming Modi “Father of India”)? Is it possible that PM Modi was trying to suggest that he commands a block-vote in the American elections? After all the National Asian American Survey shows that 77 per cent of Indian Americans voted for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election and only 16 per cent for Trump. President Trump would certainly want help to reverse those figures in 2020.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a group photograph with the Indian community in Houston, Texas, USA | PIB /PTI photo

India has always assumed that its wooing of the diaspora does not bother bigger countries like the US and UK. African countries and those which have a sizeable Indian origin population like Fiji are very sensitive to Indian influence over its diaspora. However, the UK has seen how exacerbated inter-ethnic or inter-community tensions among diaspora communities can damage its internal peace. The two most recent examples of this were clashes outside the Indian High Commission between pro-Indian and pro-Pakistan demonstrators over developments in Kashmir. Scotland Yard made four arrests on August 15 after the two set of protestors threw stones and bottles at each other. On September 3, the Indian High Commission was vandalised by anti-India protestors again over Kashmir.

After the Labour Party passed a resolution on the humanitarian crisis in Kashmir, the “Overseas Friends of BJP” threatened that “the entire Indian diaspora in Britain” will not vote Labour. In equating Indian diaspora with the BJP’s policies, one can already see how social polarisation of diaspora in the UK might influence local politics.

Such influence is unlikely to be tolerated in the long run. India should take note how worried Australia is by China’s attempts to infiltrate its policy-making circles and strengthen its influence over the Chinese diaspora. If that is the direction India’s diaspora policy is headed then there may be trouble ahead.

This is especially because Modi government’s attempt to use the Indian diaspora relies on cynically reshaping the ethnic diversity of other countries for its partisan ends. Modi’s manner of mobilising the Indian diaspora reaffirms Hindu ethnocentric elements within it. Dividing the diaspora along communal lines helps to normalise internationally the BJP’s targetting of religious minorities in India.

Because of his divisive influence on the diaspora, PM Modi’s high profile rallies overseas could create anxiety in the host countries about threats to their internal stability. Germany, for example, has already banned political campaigns on its soil by non-EU foreign leaders after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attempted to hold a referendum among the Turkish diaspora in Germany in 2017. Who knows how the endorsement of President Trump or of electoral candidates in other countries will be viewed by their political class?

The domestic effect of ethnocentric appeals to the diaspora are also double-edged. Those enamoured of Prime Minister Modi’s politics will no doubt increase funding for his Hindu nationalist politics. In the past, separatist movements (e.g. in Kashmir and Punjab) have also received support from the diaspora. The Kanishka bombing was masterminded by the Canadian Sikh diaspora. The Indian diaspora funds organisations belonging to a range of extremist ideologies from right-wing Hinduism to Islamic fundamentalism in India. Neighbouring Sri Lanka has borne the consequences of diaspora support for Tamil separatists. 

Diaspora groups when they are polarised into sub-nationalist or ethno-nationalist divisions, can be disastrous both for the host country as well as for their country of origin. These are the uncharted waters where PM Modi may be leading the Indian diaspora.

Twitter: @Bharatitis