Import dependence

Changing global environment can increase military risks

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which tracks global arms transfers, has reported that India remained the world’s biggest arms importer over the past five years (2018-22). With an 11 per cent share of global arms imports, India was ahead of Saudi Arabia (9.6 per cent), Qatar (6.4 per cent), Australia (4.7 per cent), and China (4.6 per cent) in that order. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence (MoD), in a written reply to Parliament this week, said India’s expenditure on overseas defence procurement had decreased from 46 per cent of the country’s overall expenditure in 2018-19 to 36.7 per cent till December in 2022-23. Unlike China, which balances its large defence-equipment imports with large weapons exports to countries such as Pakistan, India’s defence exports have remained largely flat.

According to the MoD’s statement, India exported defence equipment worth Rs 10,746 crore in 2018-19, and that increased only to Rs 13,399 crore this year. India’s defence industry has been looking for high-value export breakthroughs — such as Tejas fighters, BrahMos missiles, destroyers, frigates, air-defence missiles, artillery guns, rocket launchers, or airbase modernisation — but has mostly managed to get low-value contracts for equipment such as ammunition and offshore-patrol vessels. India’s defence-production hubs are still learning the multiple dimensions of a weapons-production ecosystem — whether for aircraft-flight control systems and computers; or fuselage and hull design; or a tank-gunnery sighting and active armour-protection systems — which would allow Indian industry to design, develop, and manufacture carefully chosen systems and sub-systems that are essential parts of an overall weapons system.

It would also be essential to select the focus area carefully. For instance, a lone UK-based company has produced aircraft-ejection seats since 1946, dominating the international market and, according to company figures, saved 7,691 lives through successful ejections to date. When a fighter aircraft is developed, the manufacturer is most likely to approach this company for its ejection seats. Similarly, another UK-based company has been the market leader since 1934 in producing in-flight refuelling systems, which allow combat aircraft to draw fuel during flight from a tanker aircraft. Two UK-based companies have been highlighted here because the Indian and British defence budgets are approximately the same.

However, given the advent of technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and quantum computing, Indian high-technology start-ups and medium, small, and micro enterprises could establish themselves in dominating positions in these futuristic, game-changing fields. For this, coordination would be needed between ministries such as defence, science and technology, and electronics and information technology. Besides, the defence ministry would be well advised to set reasonable targets and approach them in a coordinated fashion. Over the past six years, the goals have included expanding annual defence production to Rs 1.75 trillion, and pushing up defence exports from $1.5 billion to $5 billion. However, exports are still at about $1.6 billion. In order to contain import dependence, the government has put in place a rolling ban on shipping in an increasing number of weapons platforms. But it must be recognised that even in the absence of a timely development of domestic capabilities, India’s defence preparedness should not suffer. Reducing dependence on imports needs a realistic strategy. Excessive import dependence could increase military vulnerability in the changing geopolitical environment.