China is due to unveil its new leaders in less than three weeks. Yet the process still has investors in suspense. Wang Yang, a vocal supporter of political reform, may miss out on a job on the Communist Party’s top body, according to Reuters. Wang Qishan, a darling of foreign investors, should make the cut but may not get a key economic role, The New York Times reports.
Most speculation has focused on the composition of the Party’s Standing Committee. But the division of labour also matters. Though Wang Qishan is almost certain to join the likely seven-man body, he may not get the first deputy premier job, in charge of economic affairs. Instead, he may become the chairman of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, a figurehead position at an advisory body, according to the NYT.
That’s a setback for foreign investors, who counted the former banker as a friend. While at the helm of China Construction Bank Wang set up China’s first investment bank, China International Capital Corp, as a joint venture with Morgan Stanley. He also worked closely with Goldman Sachs on the restructuring of Guangdong’s investment arm when he was vice governor of the southern province. He has helped to push for the liberalisation and opening up of China’s financial system.
If Wang is sidelined, that could have implications for financial reform. And, if he is no longer involved in economic matters, the people who run China’s financial sector may have to change as well. A protégé of former Premier Zhu Rongji, Wang has lots of allies in the financial sector. They include the chairman of China’s sovereign wealth fund Lou Jiwei; Zhu’s son Levin, who heads up CICC; and the chairman of China’s securities watchdog Guo Shuqing.
Meanwhile, investors hoping for greater political freedom should not hold their breath. The top party committee is almost certain to include propaganda minister Liu Yunshan, who has kept China’s domestic media on a tight leash, but not Wang Yang, who said media should be better watchdogs. The Guangdong party chief was always considered an outside candidate. Still, his tolerance for an election in Wukan Village might have cost him.
Leadership changes matter because the Chinese economy is still largely driven by the state. Despite the Party’s efforts to engineer a smooth transition, investors may still be in for some surprises.