Aflatoon Desai, a former student leader of the Banaras Hindu University (BHU), heads the Uttar Pradesh unit of the Samajwadi Jan Parishad. Varanasi-based Aflatoon, grandson of Mahatma Gandhi's personal secretary Mahadev Desai, tells Archis Mohan that Arvind Kejriwal would be no match for Narendra Modi in Varanasi. However, the 54-year-old doesn't think much of the BJP's chances in eastern UP either. Edited excerpts:
How do you rate the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s chances in eastern Uttar Pradesh?
BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and party president Rajnath Singh have colluded to marginalise several of UP's top BJP leaders such as Murli Manohar Joshi, Lalji Tandon and Kalraj Mishra. All of them are senior to both Modi and Rajnath. These two gentlemen don't think much of any of these leaders. This arrogance is surprising in Rajnath's case considering he doesn't have much of a personal base himself. In eastern UP, the caste that Rajnath hails from votes for the Samajwadi Party (SP). The BJP under them has ignored leaders of stature. Do you really think local karyakaratas would become Modi bhakts overnight, and jettison their leaders of years? The workers are connected to these leaders. Not many have taken kindly to Amit Shah parachuting with his own team, dictating to everybody. All this will definitely impact the BJP's chances in this area.
What do you think of the BJP's effort to sell Modi's chaiwala image and that he is an OBC?
It's an illusion. It will become evident when the results come out. However, Rajnath has tried his best to have tie-ups with caste based parties like Apna Dal. He hails from the region and is an old hand at this (such alliances).
Here, in eastern UP, each caste has a political party. There are Rajbhars (landless labourers), who have their own party. There is also the Noniya Chauhan (an OBC community) Janwadi party. All of them have learnt from Mayawati. These caste leaders approach big parties saying they have many votes in their pocket, which they can transfer to the bigger party in return of money or even a couple of seats since they cannot win a seat on their steam alone. Some of these groups were with Mukhtar Ansari's Qaumi Ekta Dal but are likely to support Rajnath.
Can Modi succeed in UP as he did in Gujarat?
Look, eastern UP isn't Gujarat. In Gujarat, Modi ended all challenge to his leadership. This cannot happen here. For example, the BJP didn't give a ticket to former party state president Surya Pratap Shahi, which made his caste group, bhumihars, upset.
Take the case of Rajnath. He was the state incharge of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha in the 1980s. He would work on the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's directions. Once, during the BHU student body elections, Rajnath took out an envelope from his pocket to read out the name of an ABVP candidate while denying the ticket to a more popular candidate. Irate students chased him. He had to lock himself in a room in Bal Gangadhar Tilak hostel.
How do you see the electoral battle shaping up in Varanasi?
Last time, Joshi won by a mere 17,000 votes. It will become an interesting fight if Mukhtar Ansari (who was a close second to Joshi in 2009 elections and is in jail) fights. The battle would be Mukhtar versus Modi.
Many of your former colleagues from the Samajwadi Jan Parishad (SJP) have joined the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). What are Arvind Kejriwal's chances from Varanasi? (Incidentally, Aflatoon's father, noted Gandhian Narayan Desai had recently offered "conditional support" to AAP).
Kejriwal will be inconsequential here. And who are they (former colleagues at SJP) to me now? We are different political parties. They don't have any base here. AAP contesting from here won't mean that Muslims, who vote to ensure the BJP's defeat whether it's Joshi or Modi, would vote for them. They will vote who they voted for last time.
How do you think Muslims would vote in eastern UP after the riots in Muzaffarnagar?
It is a compulsion for the Muslim community to vote for the SP, at least here in eastern UP. Mayawati doesn't have a strong base among Muslims in this region, while the Congress is getting decimated. It is an illusion the BJP wants to build that Muslims would vote for the party. Not even one per cent would do that.
What do you think about the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party's prospects in the region?
In eastern UP you cannot take the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party lightly. I would wager that the first and second from eastern UP would be these two parties. The BJP is likely to pip the Congress to third. In the previous Lok Sabha, the Congress had a seat more than the BJP from this region. That could probably change.
I don't think Modi's candidature from here is going to help the BJP. They think Modi can become a symbol. But once the battle is joined you would see that many of their planks will look much weaker, for example the attack on dynasty. There is enough dynastic politics within the BJP in the state. Rajnath's son is a state general secretary, Maneka Gandhi's son Varun is contesting election, as is Kalyan Singh's son.
UP, particularly eastern UP, is economically backward. Surely, Modi's development plank will find some resonance?
To me, that is a media creation. Modi is an articulate leader and has in his rallies said a lot about Gujarat's development. Most people don't think that deeply, but consider this: eastern UP may be more backward than Gujarat but this region hasn't witnessed any farmer suicides, while Gujarat has witnessed over 800 of them in the past few years. We don't grow cash crops here. Eastern UP's peasants cultivate to feed their family and the nation. They haven't been pushed to commit suicide. These things aren't a matter of public discourse yet, but would be in the days to come.
Modi also claims how he has given jobs to people from UP and Bihar. You should go and see the pitiable conditions they have to live in Gujarat. Upeksha sahni padti hai... (they are discriminated against).
Then there is this huge issue of the Banarasi sari industry facing closure because of Surat's powerloom sector. Here it takes seven days to make one sari and just one day in Surat. You cannot distinguish between a Surat powerloom Banarasi and Varanasi's handloom sari. While peasants may not be committing suicides here, artisans are. This is because of Surat. Modi will need to answer this.
There is also the issue of cleaning the Ganga that he said in his rally in Varanasi. But some of India's most polluted rivers are in Gujarat. He has developed a stretch of riverfront on the Sabarmati and started calling it development. Most of his claims are a hoax. People from here who have lived in Gujarat know and understand this.
How do you rate the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s chances in eastern Uttar Pradesh?
BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and party president Rajnath Singh have colluded to marginalise several of UP's top BJP leaders such as Murli Manohar Joshi, Lalji Tandon and Kalraj Mishra. All of them are senior to both Modi and Rajnath. These two gentlemen don't think much of any of these leaders. This arrogance is surprising in Rajnath's case considering he doesn't have much of a personal base himself. In eastern UP, the caste that Rajnath hails from votes for the Samajwadi Party (SP). The BJP under them has ignored leaders of stature. Do you really think local karyakaratas would become Modi bhakts overnight, and jettison their leaders of years? The workers are connected to these leaders. Not many have taken kindly to Amit Shah parachuting with his own team, dictating to everybody. All this will definitely impact the BJP's chances in this area.
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And now, SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has also decided to contest from the Azamgarh constituency. That will also have a significant impact.
What do you think of the BJP's effort to sell Modi's chaiwala image and that he is an OBC?
It's an illusion. It will become evident when the results come out. However, Rajnath has tried his best to have tie-ups with caste based parties like Apna Dal. He hails from the region and is an old hand at this (such alliances).
Here, in eastern UP, each caste has a political party. There are Rajbhars (landless labourers), who have their own party. There is also the Noniya Chauhan (an OBC community) Janwadi party. All of them have learnt from Mayawati. These caste leaders approach big parties saying they have many votes in their pocket, which they can transfer to the bigger party in return of money or even a couple of seats since they cannot win a seat on their steam alone. Some of these groups were with Mukhtar Ansari's Qaumi Ekta Dal but are likely to support Rajnath.
Can Modi succeed in UP as he did in Gujarat?
Look, eastern UP isn't Gujarat. In Gujarat, Modi ended all challenge to his leadership. This cannot happen here. For example, the BJP didn't give a ticket to former party state president Surya Pratap Shahi, which made his caste group, bhumihars, upset.
Take the case of Rajnath. He was the state incharge of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha in the 1980s. He would work on the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's directions. Once, during the BHU student body elections, Rajnath took out an envelope from his pocket to read out the name of an ABVP candidate while denying the ticket to a more popular candidate. Irate students chased him. He had to lock himself in a room in Bal Gangadhar Tilak hostel.
How do you see the electoral battle shaping up in Varanasi?
Last time, Joshi won by a mere 17,000 votes. It will become an interesting fight if Mukhtar Ansari (who was a close second to Joshi in 2009 elections and is in jail) fights. The battle would be Mukhtar versus Modi.
Many of your former colleagues from the Samajwadi Jan Parishad (SJP) have joined the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). What are Arvind Kejriwal's chances from Varanasi? (Incidentally, Aflatoon's father, noted Gandhian Narayan Desai had recently offered "conditional support" to AAP).
Kejriwal will be inconsequential here. And who are they (former colleagues at SJP) to me now? We are different political parties. They don't have any base here. AAP contesting from here won't mean that Muslims, who vote to ensure the BJP's defeat whether it's Joshi or Modi, would vote for them. They will vote who they voted for last time.
How do you think Muslims would vote in eastern UP after the riots in Muzaffarnagar?
It is a compulsion for the Muslim community to vote for the SP, at least here in eastern UP. Mayawati doesn't have a strong base among Muslims in this region, while the Congress is getting decimated. It is an illusion the BJP wants to build that Muslims would vote for the party. Not even one per cent would do that.
What do you think about the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party's prospects in the region?
In eastern UP you cannot take the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party lightly. I would wager that the first and second from eastern UP would be these two parties. The BJP is likely to pip the Congress to third. In the previous Lok Sabha, the Congress had a seat more than the BJP from this region. That could probably change.
I don't think Modi's candidature from here is going to help the BJP. They think Modi can become a symbol. But once the battle is joined you would see that many of their planks will look much weaker, for example the attack on dynasty. There is enough dynastic politics within the BJP in the state. Rajnath's son is a state general secretary, Maneka Gandhi's son Varun is contesting election, as is Kalyan Singh's son.
UP, particularly eastern UP, is economically backward. Surely, Modi's development plank will find some resonance?
To me, that is a media creation. Modi is an articulate leader and has in his rallies said a lot about Gujarat's development. Most people don't think that deeply, but consider this: eastern UP may be more backward than Gujarat but this region hasn't witnessed any farmer suicides, while Gujarat has witnessed over 800 of them in the past few years. We don't grow cash crops here. Eastern UP's peasants cultivate to feed their family and the nation. They haven't been pushed to commit suicide. These things aren't a matter of public discourse yet, but would be in the days to come.
Modi also claims how he has given jobs to people from UP and Bihar. You should go and see the pitiable conditions they have to live in Gujarat. Upeksha sahni padti hai... (they are discriminated against).
Then there is this huge issue of the Banarasi sari industry facing closure because of Surat's powerloom sector. Here it takes seven days to make one sari and just one day in Surat. You cannot distinguish between a Surat powerloom Banarasi and Varanasi's handloom sari. While peasants may not be committing suicides here, artisans are. This is because of Surat. Modi will need to answer this.
There is also the issue of cleaning the Ganga that he said in his rally in Varanasi. But some of India's most polluted rivers are in Gujarat. He has developed a stretch of riverfront on the Sabarmati and started calling it development. Most of his claims are a hoax. People from here who have lived in Gujarat know and understand this.