India@100: What's ahead for urbanisation?

With India surpassing the United Kingdom to become the fifth-largest economy, the world is closely watching as it strides towards the next 25 years. A defining factor in India achieving its developmental goals will prove to be the pace at which it urbanises. Since the 1950s, the speed of urbanisation in India has witnessed a consistent rise. Even when it has lagged its peers, India has prioritised planned urbanisation as part of its development strategy.

According to the World Urbanisation Prospects (2018 Revision), an urbanisation growth rate of 2.4 per cent was observed between 2010 and 2018. By 2022, India’s projected rate of urbanisation was expected to be 35.9 per cent, and by 2047, this is expected to increase to approximately 50.9 per cent. Despite having a pace of urbanisation lower than the BRICS nations, India’s focus on meeting the challenges in its development journey over the next 25 years has remained strong. India is well aware of the centrality of urbanisation in order to transform cities as engines of growth and is set on realising its goal of holistic progress. However, unwillingness is the least of its concerns when it comes to increasing the pace of urbanisation. What’s of greater concern is that the nation’s cities are plagued with issues like sewage management, urban planning, declining water table and air quality that negatively influences the ease of living. In this context, we can identify two urgent issues facing India’s urbanisation journey —one, the asymmetric pattern of urbanisation and two, the issue of planned urbanisation.

For the most part, urbanisation in India followed the trajectory of economic development. That is to say, cities developed in tandem with economic growth. However, this resulted in asymmetric patterns of urbanisation. The states that saw economic growth urbanised at a faster pace. For instance, Kerala has a projected urban population of around 73.19 per cent in 2022, which is expected to increase to over 96 per cent by 2036. In comparison, states like Assam and Bihar have an abysmal projected population of 15.4 per cent and 12.2 per cent, respectively, in 2022, which is expected to marginally increase to 17.16 per cent and 13.2 per cent by 2036. Union Territories like Delhi and Chandigarh are projected to be 100 per cent urbanised in the same time period.

One of the biggest challenges facing India’s urbanisation mission is the asymmetric pattern of urbanisation. This slow and differentiated pace has been characterised by India’s unique social structure and kinship ties that tend to restrict mobility. However, can India afford to continue with this narrative? With India entering its “Amrit Kaal” and given its stern focus on achieving its developmental goals, it has to unequivocally aim at matching the rate of urbanisation prevalent among its peers. However, it needs to pay attention to the impact of urbanisation at the micro level going down to the districts as they shape up the larger economic spatiality of the country. In other words, urban districts roughly account for 30 per cent of all districts in the country, with 45 per cent of jobs and more than 55 per cent of wages paid. These figures have been revealed in the “Competitiveness Roadmap for India@100”, which further posits that for a well-spread and shared growth, India needs to focus on the districts lagging behind and push for a faster rate of planned urbanisation. In addition, the limited level of internal migration adds to the concern of inadequate distribution of resources along with the lopsided pace of urbanisation. There are no restrictions on internal movement in the country. However, the last Census data (2011) shows us that the bulk of this movement has followed the same pattern of migrating to specific states or from one district to another.

Yet, with an expected urban population of close to 630 million by 2030, the emphasis should not be on urbanisation alone but on planned urbanisation. By planned urbanisation, it is implied that equal emphasis is placed on aspects of city design, planning and governance. Well-planned cities lead to value creation through optimal distribution and utilisation of resources. Additionally, it fosters ease of living and prosperity through sustainable growth and economic productivity that the residents can benefit from. In many ways, even the difficulties that urbanisation brings offer excellent chances to redesign cities by looking at sustainable objectives and socio-economic growth, which will only result in a more stable social structure. To this extent, India needs to target key reform areas, from remodelling its urban governance system to making it more people-centric.

However, the urbanisation rate must be regulated to prevent a population surge only in larger cities. It is also essential to closely monitor the rate of urbanisation as it will aid in the process of building sustainable pathways to socio-economic development in the country. A dual focus on planned and uniform urbanisation will go a long way in attaining global recognition for India’s urban story. If targeted and continued efforts are made now, the next two decades can be pivotal in achieving these projections by 2047 and a higher rate of social progress.

The writers are, respectively, chair, Institute for Competitiveness, India and lecturer, Stanford University; and chairman, Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister of India. Tweets @kautiliya and @bibekdebroy