Dismay with Modi govt far more than the usual disappointment with govts

Narendra Modi's popularity ensured that people would accept temporary pain for long-term gain. Some disappointment was inevitable. But the dismay is far more

In May 2014, there was an air of strong optimism; perhaps, India’s time had come. The country’s Prime Minister (PM) reputed for action, promised a vision of transforming India. A majority government could legislate and implement without the shackles that bound coalition governments. The ruling party and its MPs would rally around the PM and his development agenda. 

Some disappointment was inevitable. But the dismay is far more. The transformation remains elusive. Crony capitalism is alive and kicking, as is corruption. Social divisiveness has become a serious problem with violent and murderous manifestation. The economic outlook is far from rosy and growth has certainly not been inclusive. 

The missed opportunities have been many. 

First, India badly needed a new agricultural strategy. It was widely accepted that major reforms were necessary. At the very least, a medium-term policy ought to have been announced and implementation commenced. The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare seems to have been blissfully unaware of the urgency. Even as signs of serious farm distress emerged, business as usual prevailed. The sector’s problems are well understood and documented. Numerous solutions were proffered, to no avail.

Second, a manufacturing policy to boost industrial growth and employment was urgently needed to “transform” India. The Make in India (MII) initiative of September 2014 remained a slogan. Its policy content was never articulated — translating MII into actionable operational details. There was no flesh on the MII skeleton. (Business Standard, January 10, 2017). Yet later, MII was used to rationalise raising tariffs across the board for numerous items.

The country’s Prime Minister had promised a vision of transforming India. But the missed opportunities have been many

Third, the education sector was crying for reform. Successive ASERs have brought out the poor state of school learning outcomes. Schools continue to languish. Tertiary education is in trouble: Many central universities are in secular decline, engineering and medical colleges of dubious quality have mushroomed, and new IITs/IIMs are desperately short of staff. The government dissipated its energy in: Confrontations with universities and IIMs/IITs; planting political loyalists as vice-chancellors who rule by diktat; throttling voice at reputed seats of learning; and, farcically, bestowing a label of Institution of Eminence on an institution that does not even exist. Opportunity lost.

Fourth, on macroeconomic management the two big misses have been the clean-up of the banks balance sheets and the unconscionable neglect of exports (Business Standard, September 27, 2018). Delayed action on recapitalising and reforming governance in public sector banks has led to mounting problems. The overhang will hamper credit creation for at least a few years more. The sharp reduction in the current account deficit nurtured complacency. There was little appreciation of the possible Dutch disease consequences. The real exchange rate appreciated and exports plateaued without eliciting any policy response. 

Fifth, growth (howsoever debatable its size) has been uneven and inequitably distributed. On-farm and off-farm employment have suffered. MGNREGA funding dried up 2017 onwards. The informal and MSME sector were pummelled by demonetisation and GST. Employment insecurity, feeble job growth, and poorly-paid informal sector employment are a throwback to the 1970s. The WIR 2018 (Chancel and Piketty) and Oxfam reports only confirm the worst fears about growing inequality. This is a setting for a perfect storm of social unrest.

The other disturbing trend has been the almost concerted effort to rent India’s social fabric. Consider the evidence: Collective silence of senior ministers to wanton violence including lynchings and murder; ruling party legislators spewing communal hatred and inciting division; chief ministers whipping up a frenzy about cows to target members of a particular community; victims of violence are made the accused; individuals are trolled and socially persecuted by the loony-fringe with goons resorting to violence. And, in it all, the Prime Minister maintains a stony silence (remember maunvrat?). As argued elsewhere (Financial Express, October 17, 2017), the silence of those in authority is what gives license to such conduct. 

The ruling party’s “my way or the highway” has exceeded all bounds. Nationalism is defined as “our way”. Anyone disagreeing with the ruling dispensation is branded anti-national. Dissenting Indians are told they may leave for Pakistan. Dangerously, nationalism so defined now amounts to communalism. Disingenuously, party spokesmen talk of India being a tolerant society. We don’t need that reminder. They miss the point altogether; the complaint is that the state’s apparatus is being used to foster intolerance. Following the recent violence in UP, a group of senior retired civil servants wrote a letter voicing grave concern about the “politics of hate, division and exclusion… nursed, aided and abetted” by those in power.

The PM’s popularity ensured that people would accept temporary pain for long-term gain. Tragically, nearly five years have amounted to Missed Opportunities (MO) and Divisive India (DI). A reminder of John Whittier: For all sad words of tongue and pen, the saddest are these: “It might have been”. 

The writer is former commerce secretary, Government of India