Jamal Mecklai: Ah, Bangkok!

MARKET MANIAC

I spent a few days in Bangkok recently; what a city it is! I'd been to Thailand before, but mostly to the beaches, which are fabulous, but hadn't really spent much time in Bangkok. As a city, it is amazing. It's more 24X7 than any other place I've been, including New York. Late, late on Sunday night there are markets, people milling around, clubs, bars, what have you.

And there is the food""again, 24X7 and always elegantly served, even at a street stall, spicy yet delicate and light. From the first time I went to Thailand, I have been unable to eat Thai food anywhere else. It just doesn't translate. Like the language, perhaps.

And then there are the people""sweet, smiling, courteous, gentle, all of which culminates in that killer of sensory delight""the massage. We stayed at the Oriental Hotel and an oil massage at the spa there is like""sorry for the cliche""dying and going to heaven. No, it's more than that""it's like living and going to heaven with a blissful smile all over your body. And, again, it's a skill that doesn't export""there are spas and malish all over the world, but somehow, the Thais do it differently. And they don't travel""there are few non-resident Thais anywhere in the world.

Ah, Bangkok!

And, oh, I almost forgot. The shirts. I like to wear bright printed shirts, which are getting increasingly hard to find""because none of you gentleman reading this are out there buying them, creating demand. Even Fashion Street has long turned into denim and boring Tees. But in Bangkok, at the weekend market, I found ten""that's right, ten""shirts that I loved. And all of them just 150 baht each. So, now, I'm ready to continue my life.

But, anyway, this article is not really to tell you about my travels and joys but to talk about economic growth and infrastructure. I remember on one of my earlier trips to Bangkok""it was 1996, right before the crisis""the city looked like a construction site, already a city skyline and cranes everywhere. However, there was a palpable sense of malaise. Many projects were in limbo""clearly, the Asian crisis was coming. Suchart, a friend, told me, in a rueful voice, that the previous year (1995), Mercedes had sold more cars in Bangkok than in any other city. And the traffic""god, it was insane. People told us it would take nearly four hours to get to the airport, and, of course, we didn't believe them, and almost missed a flight.

Today, they have a new, huge, and very slick airport, even further out, and it takes just 40 minutes tops to get into town, on a wonderful super-highway.

So, why can't Mumbai be more like Bangkok?

Well, the answer is quite simple. Thailand is more than three times richer than India""its per capita income is $2,750 while ours is $720. Expecting our roads and services to be as good as theirs is rather like expecting me to drive the same car as Mukesh Ambani. Not that he is just three times richer than I am, but you get the drift.

China, too, is more than twice as rich as we are""their per capita GDP is $1,740. So, all this babble about turning Mumbai into Shanghai is just that""babble. In any case, China is not an appropriate model for comparison; their economic development has a corruption-coloured central thrust, which is quite different from "normal" development, which has a corruption-coloured market thrust.

Actually, Thailand is not an appropriate comparator, either. Our economies are quite different from a structural standpoint. I was rather surprised when I read that Thailand's monthly exports are around $10 bn, about the same as ours. It is a much smaller economy, and imports and exports, which are roughly in balance, are each about 75% of GDP. In India, on the other hand, exports are about 20% of GDP, while imports are around 22%. (For China, the numbers are 35% and 32%, respectively.)

However, the truth is that, in corruption-coloured market economies (like India and Thailand and, indeed, most others), politics ultimately responds to people's demands, and empirical evidence has shown that a critical mass of people start demanding better government services when per capita GDP crosses about $1,000. Of course, empirical evidence is hardly definitive, particularly since different economies have different micro-pieces and because technology changes the nature of everything.

But, it is worth recognising that if we can sustain 9% real growth, which is a breeze (and which, incorporating about 5% inflation, translates into 14% nominal growth), our current GDP per capita of $720 will cross $1,000 sometime in early 2009, by which time the Bandra-Worli sealink will certainly be completed and we'll be able to get to Mumbai airport in 40 minutes instead of the current two hours.

Of course, the Thai Pavilion (or any of its relatives) still won't cut it for Thai food, and when I really need a massage, I'll have to go back to Bangkok. As for brightly printed shirts""well, I'm beginning to see some signs of demand in India, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Otherwise, improved infrastructure or not, I'll have to fly back to Bangkok to freshen up my wardrobe again next year.