Jamal Mecklai: If Bush wins...

MARKET MANIAC

It is appearing increasingly likely that Mr Bush will win his bid for re-election. On the heels of the excellent bounce in the polls after the Republican convention in New York, he strides the domestic stage with an almost Reaganesque attitude""plenty of confidence unbothered by facts. And attitude, as we all know, is a large part of success.

The Democrats, on the other hand, sweet liberals that they are, can't seem to get it up.

They appear more geared for a bake sale than an election. They need to take a page""or several pages""from the books of the Republican pit bulls like Karl Rove and Rudy Guliani, who has shown himself as a master charlatan with his comment that when he arrived at the World Trade Centre site minutes after the planes hit on 9/11, he saw a man leaping from the 100th floor and clutched the arm of the police commissioner and said, "Thank God, George Bush is president."

Yeah, right! And nobody in New York wears all black!

In the face of this high-quality media spin, the Democrats need to re-expose some of the mountains of dirt""the pictures of Abu Gharaib, Halliburton, and other corruption insinuations against Mr Bush and his cronies, the outing of undercover agents, the invisible weapons of mass destruction""to point out that the Bush administration has been steadily, if not systematically, desecrating essential American values of truth and integrity throughout its tenure.

But, thus far at least, the Democrats appear to be wholly on the defensive, spending all their time fighting off the fusillade of allegations and insinuations with which the Republicans are saturating the media.

Which is why it appears to me that Mr Bush's sly smile may turn out to be prophetic.

Of course, there are still nearly two months to go for the election and electorates are not really damn fools""they just appear to be.

After all, look at the surprise win of the Congress over the BJP just a few months ago. So, to quote an American truism""it ain't over till it's over. The show ain't over till the fat lady sings.

But, and this is unmistakable, the fat lady is clearing her throat.

If Mr Bush does win, it will send a loud, foul-smelling signal to the world confirming that America, under Mr Bush, doesn't really give a damn about anybody's views or beliefs, and if anybody""including a large number of Americans""doesn't like that, they can simply ... you know, shove it.

Well, the rest of the world will. Mr Bush has already succeeded beyond his wildest dreams in uniting virtually the rest of the world against him.

I spent several seminal years of my life in the US, and, since I left in 1985, have spent nearly 20 years defending the essence of America to people everywhere. However, since Mr Bush became president, even I have given up that job. You can only tilt at windmills for so long.

And while much of the world doesn't think much of America, it thinks even less of Mr Bush. A recent poll of non-Americans showed that the rest of the world would reject Mr Bush in favour of Mr Kerry by a factor of nearly 4 to 1.

Of course, the rest of the world does not vote in US elections, although I have read a very insightful article some time ago which argued that since US policies affect the world so dramatically""and even more so in these globalised times""the rest of the world should have a vote in US elections.

But, be that as it may, if Mr Bush wins, he will find the world an even more difficult place to do business in.

Global terrorism, which is spreading like a cancerous weed, has clearly not been extinguished, despite all the US histrionics. While it has been in a wait-and-watch mode as far as the US mainland is concerned, it would seem extremely likely that a Bush victory, confirming as it would that "the hell with their hearts and minds" American foreign policy remains in place, could trigger a compelling counter-attack on US soil.

Iraq, which is, in any case, looking more and more like a lost dream, could further splinter, with US casualties and attacks on infrastructure increasing sharply.

Oil, which has already bounced back from $40 a barrel, could shoot higher, threatening to touch $50 again. The dollar, which has been holding remarkably firm in the face of all this geopolitical uncertainty, could go into its long-awaited swoon""there are several analysts who believe that the Iraq war could well be the dollar's next Waterloo, just as the Vietnam war was its first.

The global economic recovery would be aborted, which would send the US government's deficit further out of control, pushing interest rates higher and equities into the tank.

Get out of dollars by November.

Of course, if Mr Bush loses, Mr Kerry will have to very quickly articulate his approach to this phantom "war on terrorism."

His creativity and resolve will doubtless be tested very early, and there may well be attacks against the US even in this case.

Markets will remain nervous, of course, but there would at least be a chance of averting the kind of terrible scenario that seems certain if Bush wins.

In either case, volatility, which for most currencies (and gold) has been falling recently, is bound to increase""buy options.

(The author is CEO, Mecklai Financial)