If you haven’t yet seen Slumdog Millionaire, drop whatever you’re doing, including reading this column, and go immediately to the closest theatre and see it.
What a movie! I saw it twice in the first week of its release and I enjoyed it even more the second time. I feel like it gave me a new pair of eyes. Having grown up in Bombay and living here as I do, I love it, but I guess I take its intensity and diversity and amazing energy somewhat for granted. Except when I have friends visiting, when I retaste its magic through their eyes. And Slumdog was like that — it made me see Bombay the way visitors see it: an incredible canvas of colour and energy; unbelievably deprived people who, most of the time at least, seem to be having as much fun as I am; and, of course, the beyond-extravagant details of life, right there before my very eyes and ears and nose.
Perhaps, the movie should have been called Welcome to Bombay. Except, of course, there was more. Jamal, the protagonist — what a wonderful man/ boy/child! No doubt I am prejudiced by the name, but I felt like his journey was an allegory for life, confirming that how it is is just as it should be — lows and highs, terror and delight, pain and joy, all for the same price. All you have to do is believe in your dreams, trust your instincts (and most everyone around you), and tell the truth, and, with a little bit of luck, you will get the girl in the end! Allahoakbar.
And, as Jamal came into the game show, this skinny kid with funny ears, he reminded me uncannily of another skinny kid with funny ears, who has recently been making waves — Obama!
And while it may be something of a stretch to compare the details of their paths, I think that, metaphorically speaking at least, Mr Obama has pretty much run the same course on his way to becoming President.
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And now, as the world asks its first questions, all Obama/Jamal has to do is believe, trust and tell the truth — in other words, just be himself. The luck is there for the taking. And the “girl” — not Michelle, who is part of him anyway, but the new era of life which has been awaiting a champion for so long — will fall into his arms in due course.
Of course, there will be trials — questions to which he doesn’t know the answer, “friends” who try to steer him off course, and so on. But keeping a focus on the goal and, importantly, having the good humour to recognize it all as a game, will ensure that the wheel of luck will spin in favour at just the right time.
Indeed, it is already beginning. Recent numbers seem to suggest that the worst of the US recession may be behind us. Our research department put out a report in early January that pointed out that (1) since the credit crisis had completely turned off the spigots of credit flow in October and November, it is likely that Q4 2008 would be the worst of the recession, and (2) since US leading indicators had been falling for much longer than in any past recession, and since the current recession was already close to the longest on record (it started in December 2007), it was likely that the recession was close to ending.
And lo and behold, the December leading indicators, released on January 26, rose for the first time in 34 months, confirming that if historic precedent is correct — and, as we have all recently learned, there’s no such thing as “it’s different this time” — the recession should have just another few months to run. Of course, and unfortunately, the end of the recession doesn’t necessarily mean the end of job losses — that pain will certainly continue for some more time, and no doubt Obama will be sensitive to that. But, despite the heat and dust in the media, I think it’s a safe bet that the decline in output in the US is ending. And, given the fact that historically (and unsurprisingly) the US always leads the world both into and out of recession, we should see the rest of the world economy follow suit, certainly by the end of the year. The behaviours of global equity markets, which have clearly stopped falling, and the risk aversion index, VIX, which has already fallen to September 2008 levels, seem to confirm this prognosis.
India, of course, is at the high end of the curve. We have our own strong domestic market as a shock absorber, so we will be strong enough to jump onto the US recovery faster than anyone else. Growth will once again be better than the most optimistic estimate.
Most importantly, of course, the general elections are coming up very soon. Each of us has to remember Jamal’s lessons — you’ve got to believe (you can make a difference); you have to trust your instincts (which means reject all political parties and only vote for people who you believe are telling you the truth); and, of course, you’ve got to play (work aggressively for change).
After that, as Jamal/Obama has shown, the luck is there for the taking.