Joe Biden and India: Hindutva's chickens may come home to roost

Campaign agenda of Democratic Party presidential nominee brackets the 'rights violations' in Kashmir with those of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, China and Rohingyas in Myanmar.

The “Howdy Modi!” moment in Huston September 2019 which has become inseparable from PM Modi’s slogan “Abki baar, Trump sarkar (This time around, a Trump government)”, unmistakably jettisoned India’s traditional neutrality in US presidential elections.

Should Democratic Party’s nominee Joe Biden win this November, however, India could rue Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempt to put the weight of the Indian Diaspora behind Donald Trump’s re-election bid. A Biden-led administration could potentially be far more critical of the Modi government.

In a major diplomatic setback for India, Candidate Biden’s “Agenda for the Muslim-American Communities” brackets the “rights violations” in Jammu and Kashmir with those of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, China and Rohingyas in Myanmar. It says, “In too many countries, we are seeing governments led by brutal regimes that fail to protect the civil and political rights and the dignity of their citizens” and that the United States “must again put human rights at the centre” of its global engagements.

The document promises less tolerance for “brutal regimes”. “The forced detention of over a million Uyghur Muslims in western China is unconscionable. As President, Joe Biden will speak out against the internment camps in Xinjiang and hold the people and companies complicit in this appalling oppression accountable. Additionally, systematic discrimination and atrocities against Burma’s Rohingya Muslim minority is abhorrent and undermines peace and stability. In Kashmir, the Indian government should take all necessary steps to restore rights for all the people of Kashmir. Restrictions on dissent, such as preventing peaceful protests or shutting or slowing down the Internet, weaken democracy.” India’s implementation of the National Citizen’s Register in Assam and the adoption of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) into law, are criticised as, “measures… inconsistent with the country’s long tradition of secularism and with sustaining a multi-ethnic and multi-religious identity.”

Biden has promised to host a Global Summit for Democracy in his first year of office. “If countries want to attend, they’ll have to make tangible commitments that demonstrate their sense of shared responsibility and interest in preserving free and open societies,” he says. Can India, the world’s largest democracy, excuse itself from such a gathering?

If the presidential elections were held today, polls forecast Joe Biden romping home—with Biden’s support at 50% and Trump sliding to 36%, according to a poll conducted by New York Times-Siena College from June 17 to 22. Another poll by the same pollsters (conducted between June 8 and 18) shows that in the “swing states” (battleground states where a Republican or a Democrat can easily win with a swing in votes) of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, which Trump won with a slim margin in 2016, Biden was currently leading by 9 to11 percentage points. Trump’s standing was higher by two percentage points in these six states in October last year. Since then even White voters may have abandoned Trump because of his mishandling of the pandemic and of the racial violence following the killing of George Floyd. As of now Biden has a 21 percentage point lead over Trump among White college graduates.

However, US presidential elections are notoriously unpredictable. Even Trump was surprised by his victory in the last presidential elections where Hillary Clinton was the pollsters’ favourite. The New York Times, notes that President Trump still “maintains a substantial advantage on the economy, which could become an even more central issue in what has already been a volatile election cycle”. Many undecided voters in the swing states are Republican-leaning and could return to the fold, the newspaper notes.

It is possible that Biden’s election promises may prove to be nothing more than what we Indians have wisely learnt to call “jumlas” (political bombast). His administration’s India policy will inevitably be tempered by America’s economic and strategic interests. Biden is often described as a creature of corporate capital which is positively inclined towards India as a growing economy and a market. However, the quid pro quo that India extracted by backing Trump – rhetorical statements against China, condemnation of Islamic terror and a blind eye to discriminatory policies towards the Muslim minority – may no longer be available in a Biden administration.

Many influential Democrats have been critical of the Modi government, including Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Congressman Ro Khanna, Congresswomen Pramila Jayapal, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. As a candidate for Democratic Presidential nomination, Sanders was threatened for criticising President Trump’s silence on the anti-Muslim Delhi riots during his visit, leaving 34 people dead and 200 injured. BL Santosh, BJP General Secretary (Organisation), had threateningly tweeted (since deleted) that criticism of the Modi government would compel the BJP to “play a role” in the US Presidential elections. Did the tweet perhaps channel the BJP’s “inner Putin” wondered a news report?

India’s External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, was forced to cancel a scheduled meeting with Congressional lawmakers in Washington DC to avoid uncomfortable questions on Kashmir from Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal. The Biden campaign itself had to remove Amit Jani as his Muslim Outreach Coordinator (although he was retained in another capacity) after grassroots campaigns by Democrats identified his father Suresh Jani as a founder-member of Overseas Friends of the BJP in the US. Suresh Jani is said to come from the same village in Gujarat as Prime Minister Modi and had hosted him at his New Jersey home in 1993, before Modi’s political debut.

Given the strength of such feelings among the Democrats, wooing Biden may not be easy and will not matter. Those manning the policy machinery will be Democrats of different hues including former supporters of Bernie Sanders. The Biden administration will be markedly more responsive to public pressure on minority rights globally. With Democrats in the saddle, the public discourse will also be more conducive for activism on democracy and human rights. Neither bodes well for the Modi government.

If Joe Biden wins the presidential race, Hindutva’s chickens may finally come home to roost.