The problem, though, is that some versions of the new F-150 still don’t meet the US government’s 2016 emission and fuel-economy mandates. What’s more, the hurdles get higher from here: By 2025, the targets will be much more stringent. The stakes for Ford couldn’t be greater. Ford’s F-Series, America’s best-selling truck line, accounts for 31 per cent of the company’s North American sales and half of its profit in the region, according to Barclays analyst Brian Johnson.
Ford is trying to safeguard this profit centre as global regulators push harder than ever for clean air. In the past year, Volkswagen AG, Mitsubishi Motors Corp and Suzuki Motor Corp admitted to manipulating emissions and fuel-economy tests. Hyundai Motor Co, Kia Motors Corp and Ford have had to apologise for mis-stating fuel economy on window stickers.
“Not meeting the standards is not really an option, especially on your most profitable product,’’ said Gopal Duleep, president of H-D Systems, a Washington research company. “On fuel economy, the regulators allow you to pay a fine if you fall short. But on greenhouse gas, they don’t. You either meet the standard or they shut you down.’’
Cutting fuel consumption reduces greenhouse gases, so Ford and other manufacturers are racing to incorporate new technologies in their pick-ups, including gas-electric hybrids and 10-speed transmissions. They may also plead for relief during a so-called midterm evaluation of the US requirements beginning this month. Just retooling the factories that produce the F-150 cost $1.2 billion, according to Ford spokesman Mike Levine.
Ford is scrambling because about 40 per cent of its new aluminum-body F-150s don’t comply with the 2016 mandates, according to Duleep. The four-wheel-drive, 3.5-litre SuperCab — a high-volume variation — falls one mile per gallon short and emits 15 gm of CO2 per mile more than allowed, he said.
Since most two-wheel-drive models with smaller engines do comply, the F-150 programme as a whole meets the targets. But by 2025, the MPG requirement for SuperCab-size trucks will have jumped by a third to 33.3 and the CO2 limit will fall by the same percentage. The fuel-economy numbers refer to test results; real-world driving and window-sticker displays can be 20 per cent lower.
Detroit automakers don’t know if they can comply with the regulations at an acceptable cost to customers and shareholders, according to people familiar with the situation.
“The question is, do consumers pay for this technology or just get it for free,’’ asked Warren Gibbon, a portfolio manager for Standard Life Investments in Boston, who helps manage $373 billion and sold his holdings in big Detroit car companies in 2012. “If it’s the latter, it will be tough for automakers to make a good return on their investment.’’
Concerns about the standards — and the head start Alphabet Inc’s Google unit has grabbed in technologies such as self-driving — have helped depress auto stocks. While F-Series sales have risen this year and Ford reported record profits, its shares fell eight per cent through June 15. General Motors Co sagged 15 per cent and Toyota Motor Corp dropped 27 per cent.
All this increases the importance of the standards evaluation. US President Barack Obama agreed to it in July 2011 when he announced a 54 per cent increase in the corporate average fuel-economy requirement — to 54.5 mpg in 2025 from 35.5 in 2016. He also mandated a cut in average greenhouse gas emissions to 163 gm of CO2 per mile from 250. The first step in the evaluation is a technology assessment the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and California Air Resources Board are scheduled to publish this month.
Progress on clean air has stalled because low petrol prices boosted the popularity of pick-ups, minivans and sport utility vehicles, which tend to pollute more than cars. As a result, average greenhouse gas emissions from new models were six percentage points higher in March than in August 2014, and the fuel economy of models sold in May was down 0.4 mpg from the same month, according to the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.
Pick-ups face inherent disadvantages: Towing, payload and off-road capabilities customers want mean they weigh 12 per cent to 15 per cent more than comparable cars, plus they have the aerodynamic efficiency of bricks, Duleep said.
Mary Nichols, chairman of the California board, said regulators were caught off guard by the truck surge and now need to push manufacturers to equip them with the same fuel-saving technologies as cars, including aerodynamic designs and more gas-electric hybrids, especially in small trucks used for personal transportation.
Sergio Marchionne, chief executive officer of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, has said his 2018 model Ram will save fuel with a bigger battery that lets the engine shut off at stoplights
Thirty per cent of Ford’s F-150s already have this type of battery, and the share will rise to 60 per cent next year. By 2020, Ford will have a hybrid pick-up with batteries powerful enough for daily driving, CEO Mark Fields has said.
Ford also is testing a diesel-powered F-150, according to a video posted on Autoblog.com, and may add a four-cylinder engine for the first time in the US, a person familiar with the plans said. That may be a hard sell on the farms and construction sites where Ford has championed big, powerful V-8s for decades.
“Every upgrade we made to F-150 is to improve how customers use their truck,” Ford’s Levine said. “Lighter materials help F-150 tow and haul more than any other light-duty truck, while also providing best-in-class petrol fuel efficiency.”
The new technologies save fuel but add thousands in consumer costs, including for features such as 360-degree cameras. Between 2011 and May 2016, the average price of full-size pick-ups jumped 24 per cent — almost triple the pace for all new vehicles — to $41,606, according to J D Power & Associates.
“Increased fuel efficiency costs consumers much less than the savings they get over the life of the vehicle,’’ said Dan Sperling, a California air-board member and professor of civil engineering and environmental science at the University of California at Davis. In 2012, the EPA and NHTSA projected buyers would spend $1,800 to meet the new standards but save at least $5,700 on petrol during their vehicle’s lifetime.
“This is one of the smartest and best things our country can be doing for the economy and the climate,’’ Sperling said.
© Bloomberg