<b>John Samuel Raja D:</b> Fear over the city

If ever the swine flu becomes a pandemic (similar to the 1958 Asian flu), the loss in terms of global GDP will be around $2 trillion or a little over 3 per cent of global GDP — it will be higher at around 3.6 per cent for low- and middle-income countries, according to modelling done by the World Bank. Given the publicity given to the disease and the fact that governments all over the world are on high alert and are taking measures to both prevent the disease as well as deal with its aftermath, mortality rates may not be as high as in past pandemics.

The Bank does a simulation of the worst possible numbers — the worst-case scenario is pretty frightening, that 1 per cent of people die. Though this looks unlikely, at least right now, the Bank does a simulation of other impacts, and finds that the biggest losses (60 per cent) will arise from what it calls ‘efforts to avoid infection’ — that is, individuals changing their behaviour patterns, like avoiding travel to affected destinations, eating out less, not travelling in mass transport, and so on. Mortality, if there’s a pandemic, will contribute around 13 per cent of the total losses while illness and absenteeism will account for around 28 per cent.