Brajesh Mishra, former national security adviser and the man who practically ran India’s foreign policy – and many other parts of the government – during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee regime (1998-2004), has two words for the Indian chattering classes on the unfolding civilian-military struggle for power in Pakistan: keep quiet.
This remarkable piece of advice comes from a man steeped in the study of China, in fact the last Indian diplomat to have met the great Chinese leader Mao Zedong. But it is in the emulation of Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, and his policy of ignoring both sideshows and distractions and focusing on the task at hand, that both Mishra and his present-day successor, Shiv Shanker Menon, show their real hand.
In a 1962 speech at the secretariat of the Communist Party of China, Deng invoked an old Sichuan proverb: no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, as long as it can catch the mice, it is a good cat.
You could hear echoes of this school of thought at Menon’s speech at the Chinese embassy in New Delhi earlier this week, as he sought to set the 2012 stage for the unfolding of the increasingly complex Sino-Indian relationship.
“A peaceful periphery, a stable and benign world environment and continued prosperity among our economic partners are of utmost importance to us... It is in our mutual interest to work together, bilaterally and with other partners, to reduce uncertainty and create an international environment that is supportive to our domestic transformation efforts,” Menon said.
He added: “It is for this reason that we believe that there is enough space for both India and China to realise their development aspirations.”
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Menon’s comments came in the wake of the brief storm over China denying a visa to an Indian Air Force (IAF) officer from Arunachal Pradesh, Group Captain Mohonto Panging. First the media reported the government would cancel the visit of the entire 30-member Indian tri-services delegation to China, in angry reaction to the Chinese decision. Then it transpired that the delegation would go ahead; only the IAF officer in question as well as 14 more people would be dropped.
Did India capitulate to the Chinese and, in the bargain, suffer serious damage to its reputation? Was Group Captain Panging sacrificed on the anvil of improving India-China ties?
There’s no question that the answer to both questions can only be yes. But here’s a third question: could India have avoided such a big, fat bloomer knowing full well that the relationship with China is so sensitive, delicate and fragile that any such slip-up would expose it to even more loss of face?
Once the ministry of defence leaked the information about the ethnic antecedents of the IAF officer which subsequently led to the Chinese Pavlovian reflex of denying him a visa, the ministry of external affairs and the prime minister’s office had little choice but to swallow and drop the Arunachali officer from the intended delegation to China.
With the 15th round of talks between the Special Representatives of the two countries, Shiv Shanker Menon and his counterpart Dai Bingguo, all set to take place in Delhi early next week, India could not take the risk of the escalating tension affecting this set of talks.
Remember that the Chinese had cancelled this 15th round between the two top Indian leaders in November, in protest against the Dalai Lama’s presence in Delhi at a Buddhist conference at exactly the same time that Dai Bingguo would have been in the Indian capital.
Remember that there’s much too much at stake in the expanding but still brittle Sino-Indian relationship: while trade is booming at $67 billion – even though it is hugely tilted towards the Chinese, and the Indian basket is primarily full of raw materials and commodities – China continues its relentless rise to being the world’s most important power. In the neighbourhood, specially, China makes colossal strides, causing ripples of nervousness across the heart of the Indian strategic establishment.
But here’s a second Indian perspective on China, on the other side of the spectrum from Menon, by none other than former national security adviser and governor of West Bengal M K Narayanan. “China seems more ready than ever to defend its perceived interests against pressures and demands of other players in the regional and international arena; it would thus be myopic for India to display an absence of realism,” Narayanan said at a seminar in Bangalore in late December.
Which analysis is more true? On the face of it, Narayanan must appeal to the wide majority of chest-beating Indians ready to pull out their nukes in defence of their 5000-year-old heritage. But let’s take a deep breath and think about this a little more. Certainly, Menon’s prescription of focusing on the task at hand, even if India had to unfortunately sacrifice Group Captain Panging in the bargain, is a much more realistic recipe.
Remember Deng, of the white cat-black cat fame? Here’s another quote by him, even as he ordered the crushing of the Tiananmen protesters in 1989 : “We should never forget how cruel our enemies are. We should have not one bit of forgiveness for them.”
Brajesh Mishra, the China expert, will surely like this quote, even though he knows it cannot apply as both India and China have forever been civilisational friends and allies.
The author is a freelance journalist and a consultant with Ficci