Climate change negotiators have gathered this week for the Bonn meeting which serves as the preparatory meeting for the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. Large developing countries like India, China and Brazil are under pressure to reduce greenhouse (GHG) emissions even though their per capita emissions are small compared to the developed countries. For India and Brazil, the emissions are much lower than the world’s per capita average. For example in 2005, the total CO2 emissions for India, China, the US and the world were: 1.1, 5.1, 5.8 and 27.1 billion tonnes respectively, whereas their per capita emissions in the same order are 1, 3.8, 19.6 and 4.2 tonnes.
China’s economy has reached a stage where some consider it a developed country. However, China points out that the glitter of Shanghai and Beijing could be misleading because in the rural areas poverty still exists.
My visit last month to Shanghai to attend a seminar on climate change negotiations gave me a glimpse of the Chinese thinking on the issue. Human capital has flowered gradually but compared to what one observed during earlier visits there is a lot of change. Now even young people are discussing the fine points of negotiations and carrying out complex modelling and data analysis. This is not limited to a few individuals but is fairly widespread: Several teams are carrying out work on different aspects in a collaborative manner. Healthy difference of opinions is also being tolerated. That makes it difficult to know what the official line really is. NGOs and private organisations are admittedly few on the ground in China but there does not appear to be an ‘official line’ that everyone is toeing.
It was repeatedly pointed out by the participants that this is the first time such a conference is being held with other developing countries; so far, they have been talking only with the developed world. The sudden desire to talk to developing countries may have to do with two recent developments. On the one hand, the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) has put China in a group of developing countries with no binding obligations to reduce emissions. On the other hand, its total emissions appear to have surpassed those of the US (5 billion tonnes a year).
So, why this sudden need of developing countries whom the Chinese had left behind a long time ago? They talk frequently about the unity of G77 and China under all circumstances. The primary reason is that despite the huge difference in emissions, they felt that the theme of climate change binds this group together although China’s emissions could reach 9 billion tonnes soon. The ‘extra low’ scenario puts the emissions at 6.5 billion tonnes but their appetite for growth is far from satisfied.
Another reason is that China feels it could be the world leader in the technology required to address climate change. And here, developing countries offer vast markets. The Chinese have already indigenised IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle) super critical technology to the extent of 50 per cent.
The Chinese exhibit a marked impatience with the lack of technology transfer. They feel that little progress has been made in the past 17 years to implement the provision for technology transfer in the UNFCCC that places an obligation on the developed countries to transfer climate-friendly technology to the developing countries. One expert suggested a four-point mechanism for implementing this provision through a verifiable process and offering a subsidy to encourage the private sector. India can certainly support this stand.
More From This Section
While some participants emphasised China’s right to development, others questioned how long this process would take — 10, 20 or 50 years? China expects its income to rise ten-fold by 2050. China Daily reported that the country would need an extra $146 billion every year to raise energy efficiency. That translates to $5.85 trillion by 2050 to get on to the green track for development. The report says that such investment would ensure that China’s per capita GHG emissions will grow by ‘only 50 per cent’ during the 2010-50 period.
Since China’s total emissions will soon be higher than any other country’s, it likes to remind the developed countries about their responsibility for historic emissions and, that too, in per capita terms. They point out that cumulative per capita emissions will reach 194 tonnes in the 1850-2030 period, while the figures for the US and Europe have surpassed 800 tonnes and 1,100 tonnes from 1850-2005.
What is common and different between India and China? While both have aspirations to grow where carbon space is not a limiting factor, India is a dwarf by comparison. India may not reach the current per capita level of China even by 2035. India looks at her own future when she asks for equity in per capita emissions. China can, perhaps, support us there as their position is not too different.
Meanwhile, Shanghai is getting ready for the World Expo for 2010 with the theme of ‘better cities, better living’. They are expecting seven million visitors from different parts of the world. They want it to be the best ever World Expo. We were shown detailed plans for the 6 sq km expo in the middle of Shanghai for which 18,000 families were uprooted and housed elsewhere. We have to now look at the Beijing Olympics or Shanghai Expo while preparing for the Commonwealth Games.
Jyoti Parikh is executive director, Integrated Research and Action for Development, and a member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council for Climate Change