Kharge can't revive Congress, but the party's vote share may rise in 2024

Now that the Congress party has elected a new, non-Gandhi family, Dalit, 10-time Member of Legislative Assembly, and three-time Member of Parliament, as its president – and the contrived clapping has died down – it’s time for some perspective. The facts are as sobering as cold water on a drunk. 

The Congress party won 52 seats in the Lok Sabha election of 2019. And, since it had less than 10 per cent of the total seats, it was not allowed a Leader of Opposition status. Mallikarjun Kharge missed receiving that honour by two seats. 

However, it is also a fact that the party won a little over 19 per cent of the popular vote. In contrast, all non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parties taken together had just under 12 per cent. That has made the Congress seem like a formidable force, even to the BJP. 

But it’s also true that the party has no organisation to speak of. Therefore, the 19 per cent vote was a vote for individuals in the party, not the party itself, which is just Rahul Gandhi anyway. Thus, as some of those individuals have quit the party, that vote share would also have come down. 

At this point we don’t know what it is. 

But we can say this much: If it comes down to 15 per cent in 2024, that will be the end of the party even if it manages to win more than 52 seats which, under our system, it can. 

On the other hand, even if its seats come down below 52, its 2019 tally, but its vote share increases to 20 per cent or more, it will still remain very important as a political force. Then the rest of the parties now in opposition to the BJP will look to it for leadership. I think this is what will happen in 2024. 

Hence, the million-dollar question is: Who will lead that coalition? Mallikarjun Kharge or Rahul Gandhi? Can Mr Kharge strengthen the party organisation between now and April 2024 to such an extent that it manages to win 20 per cent of the popular vote as a party and not a collection of individual politicians like the so-called G23?

For that to happen, it needs to win at least 25 per cent of the vote in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Can Mr Kharge, who is from Karnataka, make that happen? Do North Indian politicians cooperate with non-North Indian politicians? I very much doubt it. The rumbling and grumbling has already begun. 

The only good thing about Mr Kharge’s election was that it wasn’t Shashi Tharoor who won. He would have received even less cooperation from North Indian politicians. 

Remember what happened to Mr P V Narasimha Rao? And he was prime minister. Even Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee were not acceptable to them. 

So we must discount all talk of Mr Kharge being able to revive the Congress organisation. It’s not going to happen. 

So what makes me think the Congress will increase its vote share to 20 per cent or more? The answer is simple: Anti-incumbency. After 10 years in power and with all-round economic distress, it would be a miracle if the BJP didn’t lose around 3 percentage points from its 2019 share of 37.36 per cent. That’s the highest any party has received since 1984. 

Some of that vote flight will go to individual leaders of the Congress, but not to the Congress, which, as I said, means Rahul Gandhi alone. That would have been fine if he could win an election on his own. But recall that in 2019 he lost even his family pocket borough, Amethi.