Exxon/Rosneft: Exxon's deal with Rosneft mimics BP's – but without the same strings attached. The US oil major's Black Sea development is a much smaller version of BP's deal, with a crucial difference: there's no share swap. One doesn't have to hunt far to spot why. BP was desperate to secure a second Russian front after the Gulf of Mexico debacle. Exxon isn't in such dire straits.
Yet the two deals are similar. Both come from Rosneft's urgent need to secure the deep-sea drilling expertise of foreign oil majors. Despite all its troubles last year, this is still one of BP's comparative advantages. Exxon, too, also has better technology than its Russian state-owned rival. Although the Black Sea is not as harsh as the Arctic, wells will still need to be drilled at depths of up to 2,000 metres — in search of oil that won't be easily recoverable.
The economics of both arrangements are also similar. The foreign partners put up the initial upfront cash; Rosneft contributes much of the deal in the form of its licences; and the Russian group ends up with two-thirds of the economics. That may look like a good deal for Moscow, but it is really a reflection of reality. Resource-rich nations want to keep an increasing share of profit for themselves and are only cutting foreigners in when they have something distinctive to offer.
Of course, in BP's case, Moscow was also able to secure a stake in its partner, because of the UK company's vulnerable situation. BP wasn't the most popular company in America after the Gulf of Mexico disaster.
It also had more exposure to Russia than Exxon. The result is that Exxon has maintained its independence, whereas BP won’t easily shake the niggling suspicion that Moscow will somehow, sometime find ways of increasing its influence.