Kyoto revived

The Kyoto protocol on climate change, in coma since the US refusal to sign it in 2001, has been restored to life by the Russian cabinet's decision to ratify the multilateral pact.

This will help the landmark treaty, signed by 180 countries in Kyoto (Japan) way back in 1997, come into force because the prescribed threshold of ratification by countries accounting for at least 55 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, has now been achieved. The treaty asks all countries to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases by varying degrees by 2012.

Otherwise, the unabated depletion of the globe's protective ozone layer and a consequential rise in temperature due to the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other harmful gases, will continue to haunt the world. Already, the incidence of floods and droughts sparked by the more frequent emergence of factors like El Nino and La Nina has increased the world over.

The global sea level is reckoned to have risen by 10 to 20 cm in the 20th century, on account of thermal expansion and the melting of snow. If unchecked, the sea level is projected to rise further by up to 88 cm by 2100. If that happens, vast territories and many countries will simply disappear from the world map, and go under water.

For all that, the Kremlin's nod for the treaty was quite hard to come by, because environment protection is no longer just an ecological issue. It has strong economic implications, requiring (to cite one instance) investment in cleaner technologies that can push up costs and impact international competitiveness.

The strong anti-Kyoto lobby in Russia, as elsewhere, has been putting this forward as the chief argument for opposing what is in the treaty. In particular, fears have been expressed in Russia about the danger that adherence to this protocol would pose to the goal of doubling the country's GDP by 2010.

In the end, it was the European Union which brought around Moscow by making the Kyoto ratification a pre-condition for supporting Russia's entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Two arguments helped Vladimir Putin win the domestic battle.

First, Russia will be required to bring down its emissions to only the 1990 level""a benchmark which is easy to achieve as the actual levels are already close to that position, following the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Second, the economic damage caused by an adverse climate and resultant disasters like cyclones, floods, heat waves and droughts, would be far greater than the cost of switching to clean development mechanisms.

Significantly, the timing of the Kremlin's decision on Kyoto is appropriate. Both the US and Australia face elections and the opposition in both countries is favourably inclined towards joining others in protecting the global environment and adopting more environment-friendly conferences.

However, many industries, especially polluting ones like the energy companies, will have to come to grips with the changing reality and invest in cleaner technologies. For, recent evidence shows mounting damage being done by global warming, and the issue cannot be pushed to the backburner any longer, without running grave risks.