Listen to experts

Govt must no longer ignore scientific advice

In the midst of a pandemic, it is vital that the elected government listen very carefully to the best scientific advice. It is clear that the Union government has failed to do so in recent months, and it should correct this mistake. News agency Reuters has reported that the government’s own committee of scientists tracking the pandemic, the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium, or INSACOG, had warned the government in early March about the emerging variant B.1617, which is now understood to be more infectious than the original strain and also has a mutation, enabling a degree of immune escape — meaning reinfections are more possible. INSACOG, which is a consortium of scientists from 10 national laboratories, told officials in the health ministry in early March that the spread of new variants might mean that infections could increase swiftly in much of the country.

It is not certain what the government did with this information, which has proved to be tragically accurate. Genome sequencing of test samples is incomplete in India, but all the available data suggests that B.1617 dominates the cases in Mumbai and in Delhi shares space with the infectious UK variant, B.117, which is 40 to 80 per cent more transmissible than the original strain. This additional transmissibility, in the absence of strict social-distancing norms, has been sufficient to enable exponential growth and strain the health care system across large parts of India. This is the consequence of the government not listening closely to warning from its own scientific establishment.

It is clear that large gatherings, particularly indoors, are crucial causes of the second wave in India. It is likely that excessively crowded gatherings even outdoors would also serve as super-spreader events. Yet, even after scientists raised the red flag in early March, business as usual continued across much of the country for weeks — religious festivals, political gatherings, weddings, and so on were all allowed until the surge in cases and deaths became impossible to ignore. This allowed exponential growth in cases across the country. The Madhya Pradesh government, for example, has ordered all district collectors in the state to trace and quarantine returnees from the Kumbh after a random test in Vidisha district indicated that an overwhelming number of the tested returnees had been infected. The government must learn from these past omissions, and ensure that future regulations and restrictions carefully take into account the best scientific evidence as presented by its own experts on epidemiology and public health.

Naturally, questions will now be asked about the input of scientists into the future course of government policy. Several experts, including the members of the Covid-19 task force, which advises the prime minister, are reportedly “pushing hard” for a national lockdown in order to control community transmission and the spread of the virus to rural areas — a call that echoes the recommendations for India of experts from outside the country, such as the United States’ Anthony Fauci. Even the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has called for “a nationwide maximal response measure at the highest level” in order to “cut the transmission links”, even if it means “curtailing economic activity”. The CII has also urged the government to heed expert advice on this issue — from India and abroad. Many others have argued that these decisions are best left to the states or even district administrations. Certainly, a national lockdown such as last year’s may have a serious and lasting impact on poorer Indians. What matters is that these policy decisions now be informed by sound science and expert groups.