Looking forward to 2004!

MARKETMIND

This weekend is the last one in a landmark year for India. The outgoing year brought in good tidings for the nation all around. The economy finally started moving and picked up remarkable momentum in the recent months.

The impact of a bountiful monsoon should be visible anytime in the next few weeks with increased rural consumption that is likely to ensue the harvesting of the coming crop.

The second half of the outgoing year also saw a very welcome reduction in the cross-border tension and for the first time in many years, India and Pakistan seem to be making a steady progress towards making peace.

Branding of a modern India started taking shape, shorn of the traditional stereotype of snake charmers and holy men and dusty villages / animal infested forests.

Many new sectors started showing a promise of becoming the shining beacons of India's industrial prowess. Some of these include pharmaceuticals, automobiles and auto components, value added "back office" work such as industrial design, and steel.

Housing and commercial real estate boom continues to gather momentum, in turn providing growth to several related sectors be it cement and steel or earth moving equipment or finance.

The recently concluded elections in four major states finally showed the first signs of some shift from the self destructive caste- and religion-based political agenda to a more development oriented one with coining of "BSP" (bijli, sadak and paani) as the catchy new slogan.

For the average Indian consumer, the outgoing year has also marked the onset of a global trend: price compression in various consumer goods and services on account of enhanced competition and a more enlightened and demanding consumer. In short, 2003 has actually been a significant milestone year for India.

What can we look forward to in 2004? I am very optimistic that the New Year will see further sheen added to Brand India. The world economy is looking up, and the benefits of globalisation will accrue to India as well.

We would, for the first time, see a substantial jump in FDI in India in many sectors such as infrastructure, information technology, engineering, textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals etc. With 2004 being the national election year, we will see a very pronounced improvement in governance and development both at the state and national levels.

Infrastructure development should finally see some action in our least developed states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan (with perhaps Bihar being the only exception).

Rapid growth in organised retailing, enabled with the frenzied development of new retail space both through the hundreds of shopping malls as well as redevelopment of existing shopping markets, will result in our seeing launch of many more "value" priced formats of retailing across many product categories.

The most notable change will be seen in the food and grocery segment wherein the success of retailers like Big Bazaar, Giant, Food World, Subhiksha and others will see many other entrants in the fray.

In the process, we are also likely to finally see some serious investment in improvement in the farm-consumer supply chain of perishables like vegetable and fruits and some investment in food processing leading to value addition in the entire agriculture sector in the years to come.

Towards the end of 2004, the new shopping malls will further put pressure on the traditional shopping high streets and lead to a major shift in the way the urban Indian consumer shops. The process will be further accelerated with the almost certain arrival of some of the major global consumer product brands in the Indian market.

FDI is yet not permitted in the retail sector and hence while we may not see the emergence of major international mass retailers in India, some speciality ones like those in clothing, footwear and personal / body care products will be seen more ubiquitously in the coming year.

The most important change in 2004 (and the ensuing years) will be gradual coming of age of a new, very young, assertive and confident India on account of the very fundamental shift in the demographic profile of the country.

India, in the coming years, will have the majority of its billion-plus population in the 18 - 35 age group and this will make an incredible impact on what we aspire, what we do, how we vote, what do we consume, and how do we meet our needs, wants and desires.

Let us raise a toast to an exciting 2004!

Arvind@ksa-technopak.com