Looking up and forward

There are no concrete timelines for e-retailer Amazon's "Octocopter project", which proposes to use unmanned aerial vehicles, popularly called drones, to deliver packages within half-an-hour of orders. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos reckons it will take at least five years to develop a suitable UAV. Pizza chain Domino's UAV plans are more advanced - it has conducted tests of a remote-controlled pizza-copter. Given stringent controls on private ownership however, it may take longer than five years before aviation authorities clear drones to deliver books, DVDs and pizza. But while timelines are uncertain, widespread civilian use of drones is inevitable and venture capitalists are already invested in this area. UAVs could prove to be among the most technologically disruptive devices ever. The prospect of their proliferation raises huge, obvious concerns about privacy and safety. But there could also be massive potential benefits and productivity gains.

Military technology almost invariably ends up adapted for off-the-shelf commercial purposes. UAVs are likely to follow in the footsteps of other inventions driven by military research such as the fax, the Internet, global positioning system or GPS, night-vision goggles, duct tape, microwaves, sanitary napkins and what-have-you. Drones are already used by various agencies around the world for many non-military purposes. UAV technologies originally developed to enable surveillance and bombing are versatile. Drones are good at tasks as diverse as real-time monitoring of hurricanes, cargo delivery, mapping, crop spraying, wildlife protection, police surveillance, riot control, firefighting and emergency medical services.

The popular conceptions are driven by images of the US Air Force's Predator, Global Hawk and Reaper, which have been deployed in conflicts ranging from Bosnia in the 1990s to Afghanistan. These are lightweight large aircraft with wingspans of 15 metres plus, which stay airborne for more than 24 hours at above 7000 metres. These can spy, or deliver missile salvoes with great precision. They are semi-autonomous. Operators sitting thousands of kilometres away can remotely control and redirect the UAV, or just watch it carry out pre-programmed missions. But drones come in all shapes and sizes since they are basically very high-tech remote-controlled model aircraft. Some have fixed wings. Others have variable wings or those driven by rotors. Some 75 nations are known to have UAV development programmes. One of the smallest known is the AeroVironment Nano Hummingbird. This is about 15 cms in length. It weighs less than 30 grams and has an in-flight endurance of 11 minutes. It is easy enough to buy off-the-shelf components and design a small drone. Hobbyist design is unsurprisingly, popular and also getting progressively easier and cheaper, due to the wide availability of lightweight carbon alloys and versatile 3D printers.

Consider the following uses for which drones are already deployed. UAVs are sent into the heart of storms and tsunamis to survey such phenomena close up in real time. They are used in sanctuaries to monitor animals, survey forest cover and prevent poaching. They are used by police for surveillance and riot control with non-lethal rubber bullets and tear-gas sprayers. They deliver emergency medical supplies and evacuate patients with real-time remote medical supervision. They are used for fire fighting in tall buildings. Some municipalities are experimenting with surveying and mapping. Only regulation prevents their widespread use for cargo delivery.

As design becomes easier, civilian UAVs are bound to proliferate. Sooner or later, these will also be deployed by criminals and terrorists - drug dealers already use them. But the potential benefits probably outweigh the potential concerns, which need to be adequately addressed. In any event, like it or not, aviation authorities around the world will soon have to set guidelines and offer clearances since personalised UAVs are likely to become commonly available within the next decade or so.