Lowering expectations

NSAs won't work miracles, but meeting is useful

What can be expected from the high-level talks between India and Pakistan scheduled for the coming weekend? India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval will meet his Pakistani counterpart, Sartaj Aziz. The incoherence inherent in the Pakistani approach to bilateral relations - born of multiple centres of power and a lack of consensus - was immediately visible, with an increase in firing along the border. This has been a typical feature of the lead-up to, or following the announcement of, talks - and India may take note of such developments, but should not get swayed by them to abandon the process of engaging with its neighbour in bilateral talks.

The context for the two NSAs meeting is far from simple. India's approach to Pakistan has, in fact, been inconsistent of late - although there are no multiple centres of power. New Delhi's approach to Islamabad, especially to talks, has swung between enthusiastic photo-ops to highlighting tension along the border with little logical cause. It is to be hoped that, after wasting more than a year, the government has come to realise that at least talks with Pakistan should not be used as a lever for other demands. They are an end in and of themselves.

Certainly, the need for closer engagement with Pakistan emerges from the complicated regional situation at the moment. Islamabad at the moment feels a little empowered. The US remains focused on stabilising Afghanistan with Pakistani help - in spite of recent tensions between Kabul and Islamabad. Meanwhile, China seems to have decided to aid in the stabilisation of Pakistan; for the establishment, this means an additional tap for funding. The US troop withdrawal may have allowed Pakistan's Islamist proxies to look eastward once again. Certainly, the attack on a police station in Gurdaspur district of Punjab, and the capture of a Pakistani national after an attack on a Border Security Force bus in Udhampur has raised the temperature in India. Mr Doval will be expected to do some straight talking about the inevitable effects on Pakistan's internal security of continuing such attacks. All Pakistan's Islamist proxies have eventually turned on the state in some way. Indian influence in Afghanistan - even in Pashtun areas - is far from negligible. Pakistan's own domestic insurgencies are bleeding the Pakistan army.

There should thus be no oversized expectations from the NSA-level talks. It is unlikely that Mr Doval will be able to overturn the Pakistani establishment's cold-headed estimation of its own space to manoeuvre. But he should at least make the costs of adventurism clear. Further, the point is that NSA-level talks should aid in mutual understanding between the two national security establishments. India should continue to engage its troublesome and troubled neighbour at every level, and in every silo: both political and bureaucratic. Pakistan's internal divisions mean that no single interlocutor is ever enough.