India lacks a data culture and reliable collection systems but India’s chief statistician still hopes to make the system more robust and user-friendly.
India’s Chief Statistician T C A Anant set two conditions before agreeing to accept Business Standard’s invitation: the place should be near his office and at least offer some sandwiches. That basically meant a hotel coffee shop and the choice fell on Pickwicks at The Claridges. When Anant walked in, he cast his eyes around wistfully and said he was pleased to visit the place after almost 20 years, writes A K Bhattacharya.
Anant is not a foodie, though he says cooking is a hobby. He scans the menu but instead of choosing a sandwich asks the waiter if there is a buffet option. I am not pleased at the turn of events, but before I could intervene, he clinches the issue after a quick survey of the buffet spread. “Let’s go for the buffet,” he almost commands, and then perhaps realising that he is talking to a journalist adds bait that I can hardly spurn, “You see, that way we can talk a little more.”
And talk we did but on issues that don’t go very well with good food: statistics, problems with statistics and what he plans to do to strengthen India’s statistical system. The soup – a mix of egg white and tomato slices – comes and goes, and he tells me how his interest in the job of chief statistician developed after receiving an e-mail from the government asking him if he would like to be considered for the job. He belongs to a family that many people claim has produced the highest number of IAS officers, his father being a retired home secretary. He had chosen to be different, embarking on a career in academics and research which, he says, has given him a different network —his old students who are in key positions in the government and the corporate sector often help him!
So, when the offer came to join the government as a secretary, things should have fallen in place, although Anant argues that what attracted him to the job was the thought that he could leverage his experience as a user of statistics to make the system more robust and friendly.
Didn’t the task appear daunting? Anant smiles and concedes that it would be wrong not to admit that. He, of course, had the benefit of good advice from his friend and predecessor Pronab Sen. But he says the problem with India’s statistics is twofold. One, there is a shortage of skilled people and this is a problem that will not go away in a hurry. No good research assistants with an understanding of numbers and data are available in the market, which grabs them for different kinds of jobs as soon as they graduate.
The second problem is the absence of a culture of maintaining data, made worse after reforms when compulsory data submission earlier linked to the licensing era became voluntary in a liberalised environment. So there is no quick-fix solution to India’s data problems. We have to build capacities as well as improve data collection systems. In the long term, he says, the government must make the profession of a statistician more attractive and must invest in training those who want to become statisticians. “One of the roles I see for myself is to advocate the importance of developing numeracy in school children in the same way we do for literacy,” he says.
We step out to fill our plates from a large choice of continental and Chinese food. Anant selects a few pieces of tenderloin lamb, fried potato and a large slice of bread. I make no secret of my disappointment at his abstemiousness. He says he needs to lose weight. I settle for fried rice with steamed fish and fried potatoes. Anant now seems ready to talk at length on his favourite subject. What progress has he made so far on this front, I ask.
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Within the government system, he says, he has tried to get more people on contract. Budget is a constraint and he concedes he can’t do much about that. More importantly, he has promoted, with some success, the use of web-based collection of data. He is now using the post offices to collect data consistently and maintaining a chronological regularity in getting uniform price data, again through a web-based system. His goal is to put out an economic census and then a business registry, which will offer corporate data on a disaggregated basis. His challenge is to plug the gap in corporate data in the country by using the Annual Survey of Industries and the data available with the ministry of corporate affairs.
Any target date? Anant is slightly evasive. Maybe they will start work from the next five-year plan, he answers. But that will mean a long wait, I point out. He says this is a huge project and the country must understand these problems cannot be fixed by a magic wand. By way of example, he notes that already, the consumer price index is out, which has a better methodology and collection method. Once we have a year-long data series in place and disaggregated data are available, more people will start using them. Similarly, the data collection lag for the Annual Survey of Industries data is down from 18 to 15 months and a further reduction will take place.
I continue to register my protest. Why is it that in developed countries policy makers have access to the latest data of good quality before taking any decision and here in India the Reserve Bank of India relies on outdated data to make policy interventions? Anant picks up the last remaining piece of potato and launches a counter-offensive. He says we should never compare India with developed countries where data collection and provision are part of their culture. In India, just as data collection is a problem, most economic agents either don’t maintain data or are reluctant to share them with anybody. They would do so in the pre-reforms era because they feared the government would revoke their licences. He refers to the new statistics law in place that obliges economic agents to supply data and also gives them protection against their use for any other purpose like investigations against them.
My comment on the weaknesses in the Indian data system appears to have provoked Anant a great deal. Why are there errors, I ask. He admits that some time there are silly errors, but he says, fortunately, the system is robust and most users are quick to discount such errors. He also adds that there is need to strengthen our network with principal users of data. I am not convinced and Anant tackles the other complaint about the lack of adequate data by saying that this is a reflection of “our command and control economy” and how that problem is not of the statistician’s making. “It is very difficult to gather corporate data in India as a large number of companies do not maintain data — a brick kiln owner will have no such system in place. How can you get employment data the way you get in the US when you have a different labour market in India, where there are a large number of self-employed people and a thriving informal sector? It is not the fault of the statistician,” he explains.
Anant defends Indian statistics also on the grounds that our data are better than those maintained by most developing countries. Even China? He says yes, but adds that China is spending a huge amount of resources in building a strong data network. What will he count as his major achievement as India’s chief statistician? Anant becomes pensive. “If I can successfully roll out the economic census and create a legal framework for the national statistical commission, I would be happy. Of course, we also need to work with the states for a system where the national GDP data are derived from the state GDP numbers and not the other way round,” he adds.
Main course over, I persuade Anant to opt for fruit and ice cream that claims to be sugar-free. I take a few pieces of cut apple and kiwi and try and direct the conversation away from statistics. Does Anant find time to unwind? Not really, is the frank answer. What new books has he read? He surprises me even more. “No serious reading for some time, though I read a lot on the Net. You see, of late, I find that I cannot finish a book that I start, so I do not pick up a new book. I have been at Wendy Doniger’s The Hindus for some time, but can’t go beyond a few pages.”
I ask him if he misses teaching. He does not have a clear answer. “As a professor, you can choose your subjects and can flit from one issue to another, but that is not possible here,” he says. I am beginning to feel sympathetic towards Anant. Is it because of the pressures of a difficult job, I ask. Again, no clear answer. “I had asked Kaushik [Kaushik Basu, a contemporary academic and now chief economic advisor] and he said the trick was to take a short break and go out of Delhi,” he says. Then he smiles. It says a lot about his failure to relieve the stress of a job that he took up just about a year ago. So, how does he unwind, I persist. “By going home every evening,” he replies candidly before driving off in a government-issue SX4 .