Manas Chakravarty: Forecasts for Samvat 2061

WATCHWORD

First, Zaheera Sheikh will make another U-turn. This time, much to the relief of secular activists, she will say that she was kidnapped, not by Teesta Setalvad, but by aliens from outer space.

The BJP spokesman will promptly say that they were probably pseudo-secular aliens. Human rights activists will allege that Zaheera was actually abducted by Narendra Modi disguised as an alien.

The long-awaited slowdown in the Chinese economy will finally materialise. Commodity markets throughout the world will go into a tizzy, and traders will moan and groan.

Economists will predict doom and gloom, and central banks will panic. Stock markets across the world will totter as the dire implications of the Chinese slowdown sink in. Editorials will wail and howl and investors will turn pale with anxiety. All this is likely to happen because Chinese industrial growth will slow from 15.5 to 15.2 per cent.

The Left parties will hold rallies, bandhs, and morchas to protest against the fuel price hike, against disinvestment, against foreign institutional investors, foreign direct investment, pro-American foreign policies, bus fare increases, and against things in general. Meanwhile, the government will continue to welcome foreign institutional investors, lay down the red carpet for foreign direct investment, hike petrol, diesel and cooking gas prices and suck up to America.

It's possible, however, that George W Bush will be so petrified by Comrade Harkishen Singh Surjeet's fiery mumblings that he'll turn tail and withdraw his forces forthwith from Iraq.

And now, of course, to the question uppermost in readers' minds""what will happen to the stockmarket in Samvat 2061? Numerologists point out that 2061 adds up to nine, which is, according to expert opinion, a very good figure.

But there is some doubt about the five letters of Samvat, which can, thankfully, easily be remedied by adding an extra initial S, thus making it an auspicious Ssamvat. However, there are dissenting views""Ekta Kapoor believes Ksamvat may be a better idea, while George W Bush believes that 2061 adds up to 8.

Be that as it may, analysts point out that the India story continues to attract awe-struck foreign institutional investors to our shores, the attraction being in direct proportion to the investor's ignorance about the country.

FIIs will therefore, continue to buy into our markets. Domestic mutual funds will, of course, continue to sell. Stocks of defence suppliers will do well in the US markets, with Halliburton being a star performer.

After sacking Uma Bharti, the BJP will face tremendous internal tension as it struggles to define its ideology. While party hardliners will insist on a return to Hindutva, others will point out that the party needs to broadbase its ideology in order to appeal to mainstream voters.

At a secret closed-door meeting, Advani will propose the concept of "Bharatiyata" to replace Hindutva. Other members will object, some pointing out that nobody can pronounce the word, while others say that voters would confuse it with Bharatnatyam. A compromise solution will emerge, with "Indiatva" replacing Hindutva as the party's philosophy. Upset with the outcome, Uma Bharti will go into exile in the US, her journey there being called a "firanga yatra".

The US armed forces will win the battle of Fallujah. The town will be bombed into rubble, terrorist groups will be flushed out, and dreaded terrorist Zarqawi will be dealt a mortal blow. The backbone of the Iraqi resistance will be broken.

Thereafter, the US forces will win the battles of Mosul, Baghdad, Sadr City, Baquba, Samarra, and Najaf, bombing them into rubble in order to flush out terrorist groups, to deal a mortal blow to Zarqawi, and to break the backbone of the Iraqi resistance.

Later, of course, there will be the battles of Fallujah, Mosul, Baghdad, Sadr City and so on all over again, for the same objectives.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention our main prediction. George W Bush will get his troops out of Iraq, sign a no-war pact with the rest of the world, ban his country's weapons of mass destruction, clean up the environment, and donate generously to abolish poverty in the Third World. He will spend most of his time reading the collected and combined works of Marcus Aurelius and Confucius.

manas@business-standard.com