Manifesto let-down

BJP's manifesto is not notably reformist

On Monday, even as the first of India's voters lined up to cast their ballots, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finally released its manifesto for the general elections. It is not known for certain what caused the BJP to release its manifesto so late; however, it is unfortunate that there was not more time for civil society and individual voters to examine the BJP's promises and for them to be held up to scrutiny in the campaign process. The manifesto itself is perhaps not as sharp and as radical a document as in the past. True, it does mention Hindutva's "greatest hits", as it were - the Ram temple at Ayodhya, a uniform civil code, the ending of Article 370 in Kashmir, and so on. But, even in terms of the economic agenda, it is somewhat more watered-down than was perhaps expected by those who have built up the party's prime ministerial candidate, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, as an ardent free-market reformist. Certainly, the party's emphasis on competing with Congress welfarism remains intact, as it promises its equivalent of the Congress' universal housing and healthcare commitments.

Several concepts did not find a mention in the manifesto. Although "fiscal discipline" is promised, there is absolutely no mention of subsidies in general. The Congress' manifesto had suggested replacing subsidies with user charges. The replacement of many welfarist schemes by direct transfers or vouchers is not on the agenda. Privatisation or disinvestment is not referred to at all. Further opening up the financial sector is absent, too. In fact, the word "liberalisation" is used only once in the entire document, and that is in the context of the 1990s. There is a commitment to the "elimination of whatever is obsolete in laws, regulations, administrative structures, practices", but few specific examples are given. Where they are, they do not sound entirely credible. For example, it is promised that retailers and small and medium enterprises, or SMEs, don't have to spend time and money for seeking multiple licences to start a business. And that there will be a system in place to avoid harassment of small traders. It is not easily conceivable what such a system will be.

What the manifesto does focus on, however, is big-ticket infrastructure. India has a notable infrastructure deficit, and the BJP's commitment is welcome - though, as with the equivalent promise from the Congress, it is less clear how it will be paid for. River-interlinking, "subject to feasibility", was one big idea of the last BJP-led government, which stalled due to various implementation problems. Ports are a special focus - which is not surprising, given the nature of the "Gujarat model" that Mr Modi has spoken of frequently. The railways, the manifesto says, will quickly link the hinterland to ports. A "diamond quadrilateral" of high-speed trains is also promised, although this may well involve the laying of special tracks with attendant land acquisition problems. The land acquisition law itself - which will likely need to be revisited soon - is mentioned only in the context of non-cultivable land, which is not the real sticking point anyway.

There is little in this manifesto, therefore, to gladden the heart of those hoping for deep, structural reform. It is more likely that Mr Modi's focus, if he becomes prime minister, will be on unclogging the administrative arteries of India, which many would argue is crucial to restarting investment anyway. However, sustained high growth will require more than that. The best case is that Mr Modi is keeping his real ideas for announcement after, and if, he wins.