Mass transport, automated for people

It would have been impossible to imagine, but New Delhi now has the world’s fourth largest automated train network. Driverless suburban trains of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) have become a common sight. The DMRC is aiming for over 160 kilometres of driverless train operation in the next few months. 

Globally, automated transportation systems are gaining traction. Several categories of such systems are visible, being expanded or under consideration in various countries. These include automated bus systems, robotic taxis, automated airport shuttles and in the future pilotless flights. 

Car rental company Sixt will launch robotic taxis in Munich soon. The technology for these taxis has been created by Israel’s Mobileye. Volkswagen is also planning the launch of automated vehicles in Hamburg. 

However, for developing countries, the prospect of automated mass transit holds much appeal. Suburban and light transit trains are considered ideal for such automated driverless technology. Many such trains run regularly between airport terminals in cities like Zurich. These run from point to point over short distances and have no need for a driver. Airport transit systems have been the biggest adopter of automated light transit. 

The use for such automated mass transit is increasing in cities, both for humans as for freight. Automated urban mass transit includes buses and light trains. Then there is the focus on freight and goods movement where no human interaction is required. 

There are six levels of automation which are deployed in buses and light rail systems. The highest level is fully autonomous and does not required a driver. Other levels include a human driver presence for emergency purposes with high levels of automated features. Such features include sensors to detect objects, collision detection and lane management (for buses). 

The market for automated mass transit is expected to grow significantly in the next few years. According to Marketsandmarkets report, “The autonomous train market, in terms of volume, is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.87 per cent to 2030. The market was estimated at 54,558 Units in 2017 and is projected to reach 106,290 Units by 2030.”

There are several factors for this, says the report, “The increasing demand for efficient transportation with a high level of safety is expected to drive the market across the globe. The Asia Pacific region is expected to be the fastest growing market, due to the high adoption of technology, large number of projects, and increase in government spending towards railway transportation.”

Another assessment by Research and Markets.  says, “The global autonomous trains market is expected to grow from $6.95 billion in 2020 to reach $10.8 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 9 per cent.”

However, there are risks too, according to the report. “The capital costs of signalling and control equipment are likely to be associated with maintenance costs, operational costs, and large capital investments. On the other side, the transfer of data between a trains safety critical system, in particular, is a potential target for hackers.” As for all connected devices and systems, cyber security will be an additional requirement. 

Cities and urban local bodies across the world are looking for efficient mass transit systems that can run constantly with minimum human intervention. 

Even developing countries that want to leapfrog and invest in infrastructure for their rapidly urbanising populations will need partial if not totally automated systems. Investment in multi-modal transport systems which created connected networks between airports, railway stations, ports will also require high levels of technology enabled solutions. 

For the moment, one can expect partially automated transit systems to become popular before cities move to fully autonomous options.