Give Dubya his due. The India-Russia civil nuclear agreement signed during the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Moscow would not have been possible without the agreement New Delhi signed up with the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) last year. That NSG exemption came through, in the face of initial opposition from several countries, including China, because US President George Bush did the diplomatic heavy-lifting and hand-holding. Without the NSG waiver even “all-weather” friend Russia had expressed its inability to help on the nuclear front. So, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has reaped a crop that was sown by Mr Bush. In doing so, however, Russia has gone several steps ahead, without any of the inhibitions that still restrain US President Barack Obama. So, India-Russia nuclear cooperation is well on its way and will gain traction in months to come. Next in line are the French and then will come the others, including the US and Japan, and maybe one day China too. India’s civil nuclear energy programme will develop but, for it to do so, the country needs a new legislative framework that will allow private sector investment in nuclear power. These are the next steps that the Manmohan Singh government must now take. Apart from the civil nuclear cooperation agreement, India and Russia also cleared up issues relating to pending defence-related purchases, including the induction of the aircraft carrier Gorshkov into the Indian Navy. The Gorshkov saga should never be repeated again. It generated far too much bad blood between friendly countries.
While government-to-government relations will proceed at their own pace, India and Russia must also forge deeper and more wide-ranging business-to-business and civil society relations. As reported recently in this newspaper, more Indian companies are doing business in Russia and tying up with Russian companies than ever before. The Russian market has become attractive to many Indian companies and Brand India is beginning to sell. However, Indian companies remain wary of Russia’s political and business oligarchs and worry about the power of various mafias. Doing business in Russia is still not that easy. If the business environment improves and policy becomes more transparent, Indian business would want to play a larger role in strengthening the bilateral relationship. India’s relations with most major powers is now increasingly shaped by business, commerce and technology flows. It is also shaped by civil society. Russia used to be an attractive destination for Indian students, especially in fields like medicine and engineering. Student flows must increase both ways. Finally, India-Russia relations have now reached a new stage with neither as worried about the other’s affections. In the 1990s, Indians felt Russia was going West, forgetting India, and more recently Russians felt India was going West, forgetting Russia! In the emerging multi-polar world, every major power would seek a relationship with the other. Hence, India’s developing relations with the US, European Union, Russia, Japan and China — apart from other emerging powers like Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa — should not be viewed as a zero-sum game. That reassurance should keep this bilateral relationship on an even keel.