MGNREGA: Is the govt expecting unemployment levels to change soon?

Inflation adjusted, the Integrated Child Development Scheme figure is 36 per cent lower for 2021-22 than it had been the year PM Narendra Modi took over

In 2020-21, the allocation for MGNREGA swelled to Rs 1.11 trillion — four times the size it was in 2014, having steadily risen as unemployment rose. This was thought to be linked purely to the national lockdown. Last year only Rs 73,000 crore was budgeted, perhaps on the assumption that the jobs market would bounce back. The money, however, ran out in the first seven months itselfand the Revised Estimate was Rs 98,000 crore.

Even so, 23 states and Union Territories showed a net negative balance — having spent more money than they received — and workers were getting paid later and for fewer days by the end of last year. Though this is expected to continue, for some reason the Budget Estimates for this year are again only Rs 73,000 crore. Does the Union government expect that unemployment levels will dramatically change soon? It appears so.

Another area that there appears to be optimism is the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana, which runs out at the end of March. Under it, 800 million Indians, 60 per cent of the population, receive 6 kg of free grain and dal. Will this be extended and has this been budgeted? The answer is not clear. Perhaps the plug will be pulled after the election results for various states, including Uttar Pradesh, are out on March 10.

Last year produced one of the more regressive Budgets the country has seen from the perspective of social welfare as the pandemic squeezed India. The mid-day meal scheme, on which crores of children depend for their one good meal of the day, found its budget cut from Rs 13,400 crore in 2020–21 to Rs 11,500 crore in 2021–22. Though states said they would home-deliver rations or food to children, the Revised Estimate of Rs 10,200 crore was lower and in fact, lower even in nominal terms than what it had been seven years earlier. This year the scheme has been renamed PM Poshan though the allocation remains unchanged. Adjusting for inflation, it was more than 40 per cent lower.

The Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS), meant to provide food, education, primary health-care, immunisation services, health check-ups, and referral services to children under 6 years and their mothers, was also lower in nominal terms at Rs 16,888 crore in 2021-22 versus Rs 18,691 crore in 2014–15. The programme, which runs rural anganwadis or creches, is meant to improve the nutritional and health status of children “to lay the foundation for proper psychological, physical and social development of the child”, to “reduce the incidence of mortality, morbidity, malnutrition and school dropout” and “to enhance the capability of the mother to look after the normal health and nutritional needs of the child through proper nutrition and health education”.

Inflation adjusted, the ICDS figure is 36 per cent lower for 2021–22 than it had been the year Prime Minister Narendra Modi took over. Poshan Abhiyan, the flagship programme to improve nutritional outcomes by 2022, was also hurt. The government had released only 46 per cent of the annual outlay by October 31, 2020, and, in 2021, the budget was cut by 27 per cent. The Drinking Water and Sanitation Department saw its budget officially rise from Rs 21,000 crore to Rs 60,030 crore, but of that Rs 50,000 crore was for the Central Road and Infrastructure Fund, suggesting a fudge to avoid questions. The numbers seem deliberately made hard to compare with previous spends. The ICDS was clubbed with the Poshan Abhiyan, the Scheme for Adolescent Girls, and the National Creche Scheme, and the whole thing was called Saksham. Its budget for 2021–22 was less than the previous year’s budget for the ICDS alone. The BE here for 2022-23 (Rs 20,200 crore) is unchanged from last year’s RE (Rs 20,000 crore).

The Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana, the Union’s maternity benefit programme, was clubbed with the Beti Bachao Beti Padhao scheme for girls’ education, the Mahila Shakti Kendra and other general gender budgeting and the whole thing was called Samarthya. It received Rs 2,522 crore in 2021–22, less than the Rs 2,858 crore allocated in the last Budget. I was unable to find a reference to it in the current one. The allocation for Ayushman Bharat (dubbed ‘Modicare’ by Amit Shah when it was launched) was the same for 2021–22, Rs 6,400 crore, as it was for the year before. The Revised Estimates now show that only Rs 585 crore was actually spent. The usefulness of this scheme and of focussing on insurance rather than building infrastructure may be seen in the fact that of its 110 million population, only 19 people in Bihar received Covid-19 treatment under ‘Modicare’ and of Uttar Pradesh’s 200 million, only 875 till the end of the second wave last year.