Monsoon magic

BS OPINION

 If the rains are bad, as they were last year, everyone feels rotten and despairing on 15 August. If they are good, as they are this year, everyone feels that things are going well for the country.

 So it is not surprising that, when the initial forecast made in April was for indifferent rains, there was a collective groan. But now the drooping shoulders have straightened.

 There is a sense of well-being that is hard to miss, and it is showing up in all manner of indicators, from industrial production and its rate of growth to the speed with which people are buying cars and building houses.

 The confidence has even infected the Prime Minister, who has set to rest speculation (started by his own party, one might add) that the general election could be held as early as February.

 The Prime Minister has several good reasons to feel on top of things, and indeed to believe that the good times will last for at least a year.

 The economy is on the verge of an upturn after bobbing about in the doldrums for several years. There is plenty of grain in the godowns and inflation is low.

 The RBI has lots of dollars in the kitty and the private sector is bulging with cash. The stock market is buoyant. So the perception, if not the truth, is that things have not been so good in a long time.

 For good measure, Pakistan is purring like a well-tickled cat, Kashmir is on the mend, and no less than the Great and Good Uncle Sam (notwithstanding that little business about our not sending troops to Iraq) is siding with us, or rather, we are siding with him.

 The Prime Minister may dwell on all this today, when he stands atop the Red Fort. He will also, it is certain, announce schemes designed to please targeted sections of the populace.

 But will he say how he and his government intend to capitalise on this concatenation of positive forces? For if one steps back a bit and takes a harder look at the scene, several disquieting features become obvious. Unemployment is growing, and the government doesn