That said, the truth also is that the IMD's long-range monsoon prophecies cannot be viewed without a degree of disbelief. Although its daily and short-range weather forecasts are more accurate now, the same cannot be said about the long-range predictions. In fact, ever since the breakdown of the 16-parameter empirical monsoon prediction model (better known as the Gowarikar model), which gave 12 successive accurate monsoon forecasts from 1988 onwards, the IMD has been trying out various new models but without much success. Quite often, even its mid-season corrections have gone awry. This was evident even last year when the IMD could predict neither the rapid advance of the monsoon to cover the entire country almost a month ahead of schedule nor the monsoon's exceptionally belated withdrawal. It is, therefore, good that the IMD has, of late, been endeavouring to switch over to relatively reliable dynamic weather prediction models of the kind used by most weather centres abroad. The other positive factor that bodes well for the IMD's monsoon-gauging capabilities is the investment made in recent years in expanding and strengthening the supportive infrastructure for weather data collection from across the globe, including oceans, and computation of such data.
However, the jury is still out on this prediction. What continues to cause worry is the steady build-up of the notorious El Nino. This climatic phenomenon - a warming up of the equatorial Pacific Ocean - often, though not always, adversely affects monsoon rainfall. Most global weather agencies feel that the chances of El Nino's emergence during the monsoon phase are increasing menacingly. Even the IMD has now assessed the probability of El Nino at 60 per cent - a level that cannot be taken lightly. It would, therefore, be wiser to be only cautiously optimistic about the monsoon and its impact on Indian agriculture, food inflation and the economy.