Mr Naidu's gambit

BS OPINION

He has decided, with beguiling transparency, that this is a good time to renew his mandate as there is considerable sympathy for him after the terrorist attack on him recently in Tirupathi. The weather gods have also played a role in helping him make up his mind.

The state has been through three years of drought and the agricultural situation and the rural mood were none too good till a few months ago. But the last couple of months have seen good rain and the mood in the countryside has changed.

If this scenario is juxtaposed with the uncertainty over what the situation will be next September (when the Assembly elections are due in the normal course), it is easy to see how the keen strategist in Mr Naidu has decided to go to the hustings ahead of time.

The political situation in Andhra Pradesh is unusually complex for one particular reason, the demand for statehood in the Telengana region. Here too, Mr Naidu may reap the benefits of some deft political footwork.

If the Telengana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), which is spearheading the old statehood demand, and the Congress join hands in the polls, it will mean a straight (and tough) fight for the Telugu Desam in the region.

But losses there will enable the party to make gains in the Andhra and Rayalaseema regions, which naturally are opposed to the statehood demand. The Congress also has to cross a major divide before it can count on support from the TRS. It has to come out in favour of the statehood demand before campaigning begins.

This is a tough call for the national leadership of the Congress as its decision can have wide repercussions for the party in other regions facing statehood demands (a recent case in point being Vidarbha). Hoisting the opposition on the horns of a dilemma is always good politics, and this is what Mr Naidu has managed to do.

As it is, the Congress in the state is riven by factionalism and in none too good a position to pose a serious organisational challenge to the well-oiled machinery of the Telugu Desam.

There are those who believe that Mr Naidu gets more credit than is rightfully his due. The critics argue, among other things, that the state is still financially distressed, that he has been unable to attract big ticket industrial investment to the state, that he has not been able to get rid of the Naxalite menace, and that there has been considerable distress in the countryside (including suicides by farmers).

There is truth in all these assertions, but it is not the whole truth. For no one can deny that Mr Naidu has put the state on the map of many people who may not have noticed it before. He has had notable successes in developing information technology industries, in power reform, in improving governance standards, in transforming the state's cities, and in mobilising non-government organisations and self-help groups for reform in several areas (like water use and micro-credit).

This is more than can be claimed by most chief ministers, and it is now up to the electorate in the state to decide whether it is good enough to give him another five years in the state, on top of the seven that he has already had.