Mr Trump moves quickly

Opportunities for India in emerging DC worldview

Donald J Trump’s tumultuous first week as President of the United States suggests that he has every intention of moving swiftly to implement the agenda that he had outlined — albeit sketchily — on the campaign trail. He has signed a series of executive orders aimed primarily at upending his predecessor’s agenda; the first began to scale back parts of Barack Obama’s health care legislation and others focused on trade and environmental decisions, such as the order to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Protests erupted at major American airports over the weekend after President Trump also essentially banned immigration by Muslims from seven countries in West Asia and North Africa. Although a federal court has provided a temporary stay on the ban on Saturday, it is clear that Mr Trump intends a radical shift in the US’ outlook and approach, and his priorities deserve to be taken seriously.

On international affairs in particular, it is possible to discern the outlines of a Trump worldview. First, China is now seen as a strategic and economic rival above all else. It is not clear whether this means that security issues will be bargained away for economic concessions or vice versa, but it is certain that the era in which the US did not explicitly seek to control China’s rise is over. Second, Russia is no longer an enemy. Whatever the reasons that may be given for this — some more lurid than others — it is clear that much of Mr Trump’s most hard-line supporters view Russia as a civilisational ally, part of the West with common interests against political Islam and the rise of China. And thus the third pillar, which will be an increased rhetorical pitch about the threat posed by radical Islamists. The immigration ban is the first part of this; but it is unclear what actual on-the-ground measures Mr Trump could possibly have in mind to, for example, “destroy ISIS”, as he has repeatedly promised. Alienating the Iraqi government, the primary ground force opposing ISIS, is not a promising first step in that direction. Finally, there is trade. A Trump administration will move decisively away from multilateral and global trade negotiations towards bilateral trade deals where the US’ weight in individual trading relationships can be more effectively deployed.

For India, the most weighty consequence of Mr Trump’s apparent determination to put his stated agenda into practice will be the effect on skilled immigration, such as of software engineers. While many of Mr Trump’s initial statements have focused on migration from Central America or of lower-skilled migrants, his appointments — including the hardline anti-H-1B senator Jeff Sessions for Attorney General — and the instincts of his advisors, including his chief advisor Steve Bannon, indicate that H-1B reform is more than likely. Yet, for India, there are possibilities, too. A more strident counter-terrorism perspective from the US will open up possibilities for cooperation with India. A renewed focus on China’s rise means that security and geostrategic engagement with the US can be stepped up — that was certainly the implication of much of what new Defense Secretary James Mattis said during his confirmation hearings. While its priorities may be clear, the Trump administration is nevertheless unburdened by specific policy proposals in many areas, such as counter-terrorism. This would be an opportune moment for New Delhi to reach out itself with ideas as to how cooperation can be stepped up, so it can help shape the agenda in Washington.