Muscular Japan

The election of Shinzo Abe as the new leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (and therefore as the next Prime Minister) was a foregone conclusion. Although he has held only one political office, of chief cabinet secretary""and that too for only one year""he comes from a political family. His father was a foreign minister and his grandfather and grand uncle were both Prime Ministers. This is important in a Japanese context, where connections still matter. Also, he is only 52, and popular with voters on account of his message of muscular nationalism""which may not be such a good thing for Japan's neighbours. Certainly, on North Korea, he has been asking for a stronger action. South Korea is making all the right noises but must be privately worried that he may edge it out of the space it has created for itself in the last decade when Japan was in the doldrums. Mr Abe has also said that he wants to amend Japan's Constitution, not to mention granting its army (called Self-Defence Forces) the right to pre-emptive strikes. The US-imposed Japanese Constitution forbids Japan from using its army for offensive action. In short, he seems to be speaking for the generation that no longer feels burdened by the guilt of the Second World War, nor beholden to the US as some earlier Japanese leaders may have done. The world may be about to see a new and more assertive Japan under the young Mr Abe, just when Japan is emerging from its 15-year economic slump with renewed confidence.

As for China, Mr Abe has not said much, especially on the Yasukuni war shrine, which China regards as an insult to itself. While it would be surprising if he gave China any satisfaction on this, Mr Abe would be well-advised to try and improve relations with a country that has already replaced Japan as the main economic power in Asia, and on the back of that become a growing diplomatic force. In fact, China must be watching warily as Mr Abe thinks of a bridge to India, noting that these two countries are counter-weights to the east and west of the middle kingdom. India, of course, would welcome greater Japanese interest in this country.

The man he will replace, Junichiro Koizumi, is a something of a hero but he is going because his party imposes a limit of five-and-a-half years, which he is about to complete. The Koizumi years have been good for Japan, inasmuch as he managed to take its aging political system by the scruff of its neck and give it a rare old shake. The results, in the form of reforms that he wanted to bring about, may not have been wholly to his satisfaction. But perhaps the more important thing is that he succeeded in questioning the old system and getting away with it""he won four elections. This will make his successor's job that much easier. Mr Koizumi also managed to bring about some economic reform, the most notable being his efforts to break up Japan Post, which has huge deposits and which has been a milch cow for politicians and civil servants. True, that the event has been now postponed to 2017, which is well beyond even Mr Abe's term. But even that will work in his favour because he will not now have to take on entrenched lobbies.