The election is over, and the votes are in. Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party is once again seeing numbers that promise yet another landslide victory, 25 years after they won their first election. Though official results are out only for a handful of districts, the NLD remains cautiously jubilant about its victory. More tellingly, the USDP seems to have quietly resigned to its dramatic loss. In interviews before and after the election, Suu Kyi has insisted that the elections though not completely free, would give her the mandate necessary to preside over the country.
The extraordinary victory scripted painstakingly by the Nobel Prize winner and her colleagues from the time of the 1988 revolution, is dampened by the knowledge that the military is still in control of the country. In the regimented, disciplined democracy of Myanmar, the military will continue to constitutionally hold 25% of the power. It also has control over key departments in the government, including those relating to defense, interior and the overall security of the country. Suu Kyi has insisted that, even though the constitution bars her from assuming the presidency, she will still be the power behind the seat and will direct the government in the direction that she deems fit. The ghost of authoritarianism in that statement notwithstanding, a myriad of challenges lie ahead for the country and the new government.
The tide that brought Suu Kyi and her democratic movement to power will also require from the government and from her, policies that improve the living standards of the people, unite the warring ethnic nations and create a foreign policy that strikes a balance between pragmatism and aspirational. The NLD or Suu Kyi herself has not made public any policy that would address the various issues that plague the country. It is imperative that whatever policies are put in place are transparent, and take into account the various ethnic nations who want to be a part of the union.
Suu Kyi has evolved from a mere icon of democracy to an astute politician in the last 3 years. This has often been at odds with her image as a human rights crusader, and the international media has called her out on her silence on national issues. She has never directly criticized the government’s handling of the Rohingyas issue or the violent tamping down of armed rebels on its borders. There is very little sign that she will change her political stance on these issues in the near future. Her position as the head of her party, but not the president and as someone who the military will continue to see as being contrarian to their ideal of a regimented democracy, will not give her or the government the space to change things dramatically. She can however leverage her international standing to get more attention to the issues both within and across Myanmar’s borders.
Myanmar’s evolution from a hermit state to one that occupies a prime position in strategic waters has been very enthusiastically welcomed by the West. The flood of investments, communication links and diplomatic stop-overs in the country have been extremely beneficial to both the people and the image of the government. Myanmar’s neighbours, specifically India and China are watching the evolving democratic structure closely.
China has suffered from Myanmar’s determination to come out from its shadow and assert itself on the international stage. The USDP government’s determined move to open itself to western investments, and close Chinese investments in mining and infrastructure has been detrimental to the China-Myanmar relationship. There are signs that China is reassessing its position and relationship with the country. Suu Kyi’s China visit holds promise that she might be willing to reengage.
India, meanwhile has tried to bridge the gap with its assertive ‘Act East’ policy and has succeeded in small but measurable ways. The Indian government, needs to pick this moment and push forward with greater clarity on what it requires from the new government and what it can deliver. Respecting the election, the sovereignty of the country and her borders will have a great impact on the relationship. The bridging of the countries through land, and investment in the form of skill and knowledge based services and technology will have a huge impact on Myanmar’s economy and in turn be favorable to how India is seen in the country.
There is little doubt that the government that comes into power by March 2016 will continue to move ahead in opening up the country in measurable ways to greater investments and engagements with the world. The west must scale back its demands on the country, and adjust its expectations of what the Myanmar government can do while remaining under a watchful, and intrusive military.
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This is the concluding part of a 3 part series on Myanmar’s elections. The earlier parts can be read here: Part 1 & Part 2.
Priya Ravichandran is an alumni of the Takshashila Institution. She blogs at Aequalis on the Indian National Interest platform and is a frequent contributor to Pragati - The Indian National Interest review. She tweets as @binaryfootprint