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Nepal's high-stakes gamble

India will need to track and anticipate developments

Bs_logoK P Oli
Business Standard Editorial Comment New Delhi
3 min read Last Updated : Dec 21 2020 | 10:45 PM IST
Nepal Prime Minister K P Oli’s decision to dissolve Parliament and call snap elections two years ahead of schedule has confounded both his critics and supporters. This move appears to stem from growing criticism of Mr Oli for his poor handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, growing charges of corruption and authoritarianism, and leadership challenges within, principally from former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”, who is also executive chair of the ruling Nepal Communist Party. Mr Oli has scheduled the elections over April and May next year, though a legal challenge to his decision is possible, given that the 2015 Constitution does not provide for dissolving Parliament.

One explanation for this decision is that the intervening months may give Mr Oli the chance to split the party, which was formed from the merger of his Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Mr Prachanda’s Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre. Mr Oli has been on record saying that he was prepared to split the party if provoked. It is unclear how such brinkmanship will pan out, not least because of the looming China factor in Nepalese politics. Over the past six months, Beijing has been reportedly working towards keeping the party united and has hinted that it is prepared to jettison Mr Oli in favour of one of Mr Prachanda’s allies if matters are unresolved. By calling early elections, Mr Oli may have taken the risky move of calling Beijing’s bluff as well.

Inevitably, these circumstances bring India’s response into play. New Delhi’s official line is that elections are Nepal’s internal matter but rising tensions over the past five years in general and events this past year in particular make this election a critical development in the larger geo-political context of the region. Since 2019, a dispute has been brewing over Kalapani, a 35-square km sliver of land in Uttarakhand that Nepal has claimed since 1997. A year ago, it objected to the area being shown as part of India and, in May this year, protested when Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated an 80-km road along the border connecting India and China, saying it crossed the area Nepal claimed. In June, this claim was formalised by Nepal through a constitutional amendment, which was seen as Mr Oli’s efforts to roil nationalist pressures to distract from his governance failures.

With India’s dispute with China on encroachments over the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh staying unresolved, hectic diplomacy between New Delhi and Kathmandu culminated in a call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr Oli and the establishment of an oversight mechanism for the dispute in August. This was followed by several visits of intelligence and military officials to Kathmandu and the Nepalese foreign minister was due to visit India this month. This calm trajectory was disturbed in Nepal when a visiting Chinese minister offered support for the country’s “territorial integrity and sovereignty”, a signal that China was upping the ante on border disputes with India. Given this and its deep involvement in the party politics of a country it claims as a client, Beijing can be expected to play an active role in the upcoming elections. The need for India to track and anticipate developments in Nepal to forestall the kind of crisis that soured relations almost irreparably in 2015 is, therefore, vital.



Topics :NepalK P OliIndia Nepal ties

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