Nervous BJP up to old tricks in UP as assembly elections approach

Caste fractures in state present resistance to the BJP agenda of uniting Hindu voters on emotive religious issues

The UP election, political pundits tell us, will impact the re-election chances of Prime Minister Modi in 2024. Is this why the prime minister finds himself in the state almost every week?

Today, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will inaugurate the Rs. 700 crore Kashi-Vishwanath Temple Corridor Project by carrying a container of “Ganga-jal” from Lalita Ghat on the holy river to the sanctum-sanctorum of the temple (to be televised). He will then offer prayer at the Kashi-Vishwanath temple, with priests from 12 jyotirlingas (Shiva shrines) and 51 siddh peethas (powerful temples) in attendance. Later, “prasadam” (consecrated food) will be sent to the homes of all Varanasi residents.

For the entire month, Varanasi will witness political events, including conferences of chief ministers of BJP ruled states. By early January, it will be time for the notification of the state assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP).

Three weeks ago, the Prime Minister rather dramatically inaugurated (also televised) the Poorvanchal Expressway by taxiing directly on to it in an Indian Air Force C-130 J Super Hercules aircraft. Last week, he was in Gorakhpur to inaugurate the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, a fertiliser plant and a new building of the Regional Medical Research Centre.

Since July, he has either inaugurated or laid the foundation stone of development projects worth Rs. 1,30,702 crore in UP. These include Poorvanchal Expressway (Rs.22,494 crore), Noida International Airport  (Rs.29,560 crore), Kushinagar International Airport (Rs. 260 crore), projects at Mahoba (Rs.3,200 crore) and Jhansi (Rs. 6,250 crore), Varanasi (Rs.1,583 crore), Saryu Canal Project at Balrampur (Rs.9,802 crore) and  the Maharaja Mahendra Pratap Singh State University at Aligarh (Rs.101 crore). The inauguration of Kanpur Metro is also on the cards.

Normally such massive infrastructure projects would be thought sufficient to win over the electoral mandate for the “double engine” government of Yogi Adityanath in Lucknow and the Modi government in Delhi. Perhaps the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) knows that electorates take such “inaugurations” with a pinch of salt, expecting them to be shabbily executed because of corruption in civil works. Recently a ceremonial coconut smashed on a newly minted road in Bijnor cracked its surface on impact!

Additionally worrying are rumours that the party’s internal surveys show it performing poorly in the UP elections. The BJP has therefore turned to its time-tested strategy of communal polarisation.

The overnight capitulation of the Modi government cleared the ground for going back to religious politics. The farmers’ agitation promoted communal amity and was opposed to the BJP. It had become impossible for party leaders to enter villages even for social events like marriages, let alone political campaigning.

Prime Minister Modi’s expectations of a quick resolution after announcement of repealing the farm laws were belied. Swallowing his pride, he conceded the other outstanding demands of the farmers as well with alacrity except for removing his Minister of State for Home. This climb-down was presented as an act of “remarkable statesmanship” (Amit Shah) and a “fine example of resolving a dispute in a democracy” (Adityanath).

By closing the farmers’ narrative, there are no encumbrances now for what the BJP does best: communal polarisation. In addition to Yogi Adityanath’s regular venom spewing against the religious “other”, the issue of Mathura has been introduced into the political discourse. UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya has tweeted that “preparations are on for Mathura”, referring to a movement to reclaim land for Krishna Janmabhoomi from the Shahi Idgah in Mathura.

On December 9, the issue was raised in Zero Hour in Parliament with BJP MP Harnath Singh demanding repeal of the Places of Worship (Special Provisions) Act of 1991 as being “unconstitutional”. The law prohibits interference with the religious character of places of worship after August 15, 1947. The Ayodhya dispute was allowed as the only exception to the Act, and an Act of Parliament closed the door on all other contested sites. The BJP MP claimed that this law violated the constitutional provision of right to equity and secularism and gave “legal sanctity” to the “forceful occupation of the Krishna Janmabhoomi and other religious places by foreign invaders.” The controversial mention was defended against objections in the Rajya Sabha by the Minister for Parliamentary Affairs.

The alleged Krishna Janmbabhoomi site is in Western UP, where the farmers' agitation was concentrated. There farmers now openly support the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a farmers’ party and an ally of the BJP’s main challenger in UP, the Samajwadi Party (SP). The demand to reclaim Krishna Janmabhoomi land from the minority community has the potential to re-open religious fault-lines bridged by the farmers’ agitation. The ongoing provocation of Muslims in Haryana, preventing them from offering Friday prayers in public places should be recognised as contributing to this agenda as areas populated by Jat farmers in Haryana and Western UP are contiguous.

Why does the BJP need communal polarisation in UP so acutely? Observers argue that the higher the minority vote in a state, the greater the party’s need to consolidate the Hindu votes on religious lines. That is why the level of BJP’s communal polarisation campaign attempted in West Bengal (over 26 percent Muslim population) was far more intense and visceral than, while it will be unnecessary in Punjab or Odisha (with less than 2 percent Muslims).

UP has a more than 19 per cent Muslim population  and caste fractures present resistance to the BJP agenda of uniting Hindu voters on emotive religious issues. Already the BJP has formed a pre-election alliance with nearly ten caste-based parties. These castes include the Kurmis, Nishads, Binds, Rajbhars, Prajapatis (Kumhars), Kashyaps and Musahar Dalits. However, all of these are prominent in Eastern UP and leave the Jat belt of Western UP untouched where the BJP won 51out of 71 assembly seats. If the 18% Jat vote joins hands with the 29% Muslim vote this time the electoral arithmetic will turn against the BJP.

To win crucial seats in Western UP then, winding down the farmers’ agitation was only the first move. A high-pitched communal campaign to fracture the secular unity it forged will be a necessary second step for the BJP.