New political calculations

MY WORD!

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A year ago, at an awards ceremony organised by a leading business magazine, L K Advani gazed at the mostly English-speaking audience and immediately started speaking Hindi.

Their enthusiasm for the Rashtrabhasha has never faltered. So, why has the party suddenly got itself into a linguistic tangle? Why has it dithered about coming up with a Hindi version of India Shining, the political catchphrase of the season?

And why is it so difficult to work out a Hindi translation for 'feel-good' or 'peel-good' or whatever the politicians now call it? The answer is that it may not matter to them that there is no Hindi version.

India Shining isn't meant for the unwashed masses in the heartland of states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. It's a slogan aimed squarely at the English-speaking, middle-classes who've never before figured in the electoral calculations of the heartland politicians. The rural hinterland will have to make do with the more down-to-earth and downmarket Bijli, sadak aur pani.

By Indian political standards that's an astonishing political turnabout. Why is the BJP focusing its attention on an English-speaking urban audience?

Well, while it still obviously believes that the rural vote is vital, it now also believes that urban India is ready to vote for it in a big way, especially if it can prove its credentials as the party of roads, mobile telephony and all-round development.

Also, voter turnout in the bigger cities has been dropping in recent poll battles and it's important to ensure that town-dwellers exercise their franchise. The BJP points to empirical reasons to show that development sells.

Chief ministers like Sheila Dikshit and S M Krishna have been able to project an image of being doers. In Delhi "" admittedly an urban agglomeration "" that worked for Dikshit. The pollsters predict that Krishna could also head back to power.

Of course, the BJP is not about to turn on its head the long-held wisdom that urban voters do not win elections. But the BJP now believes it can win both ways "" with urban voters and rural ones and development can be a key selling point they can use in cities and even in the deep heartland.

The campaign hasn't officially begun yet, but Vajpayee has been driving home his Government's achievements during its years in power to rural voters as well. Addressing a Muslim gathering this week he drove home the point and said that highways were for all communities.

Meantime, what's the Congress doing as it heads into battle? The party's election manifesto and economic agenda are currently being thrashed out.

Inevitably, the Congress says it will focus on the villager in rural India and address their concerns. As for India Shining, the Congress won't attempt to match it. In fact, the campaign will almost certainly focus firmly on the rural voter.

Is the BJP right and have the benefits of development percolated to the lowest levels of rural India? The BJP's theory is that the common man is finally beginning to understand the benefits of development. Its top leaders believe that the benefits of roads and mobile telephones and the Internet highway have reached deep into rural India.

It could be, of course, that the BJP has erred in its calculations. Only Vajpayee and Advani are elected Lok Sabha members with their fingers on the pulse of the nation. Other gen-next leaders like Jaswant Singh, Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, Venkaiah Naidu and Sushma Swaraj are all Rajya Sabha members who haven't fought elections recently.

But if the BJP is on the money, it's a change that goes far beyond the national polls in two months time. It reflects an alteration in the mindset and the economic realities of a large swathe of the sub-continent and mean a giant change in the way elections are fought and won in coming years.