Its significance lies in the fact that it took 40 years to happen. Next week, Bangladesh is set to honour a number of Indians, including Lt Gen J F R Jacob, one of the architects of the Indian army’s victory over Pakistani forces in the 1971 war. Those unfamiliar with history might wonder why it took so long. Those who are familiar might wonder if this is more than a fleeting moment in bilateral relations with a country with which we ought to have excellent relations but don’t.
In the binary world of Bangladesh politics, one party has made being anti-India a part of its political DNA. Fortunately, for India, that party – Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party – is not only out of power but also deeply discredited among the Bangladeshi people. Even more fortunately for India, the ruling Awami League is not only strongly in favour of strong relations with India but it also has a solid majority in Parliament.
Since she assumed office in 2008, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has invested considerable political capital in wooing India. If she and her party have traditionally been favourably inclined towards New Delhi, her policies also reflect a growing realisation in the Bangladeshi middle class that participating in the economic growth processes of both India and China presents them with a ticket to their own. It is not uncommon to see Bangladeshi officials and businessmen cite their proximity to Indian markets as a selling point to foreign investors.
The agreements she signed during her January 2010 visit to New Delhi were remarkable, as have been the results on the ground since then. Bangladesh made it possible for Indian security forces to apprehend Arabinda Rajkhowa, a top United Liberation Front of Asom leader who had long found a safe haven in Bangladesh. A recent flare-up apart, border guards in the two countries now co-operate in border management. There has been good news on the economic front. Those who recall being baffled by former prime minister Khaleda Zia’s hostility to a proposal by the Tata Group to pump in $3 billion in an investment-starved Bangladesh were pleasantly surprised to see NTPC invest $1.5 billion in a joint venture to build a power plant in the country. Deals on the most difficult issues – border demarcation, land transit and water sharing – are at hand or tantalisingly close.
All this suggests that our Bangladesh policy should simply read: keep Sheikh Hasina in power until Khaleda Zia, too, realises that there are no rewards for being anti-India.
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New Delhi might not state it in these terms but has clearly worked to reciprocate Dhaka’s moves. Yet what might have been a landmark agreement had the two prime ministers signed it during Dr Manmohan Singh’s visit to Dhaka in September 2011 was held up by two broken sluice gates on the Farakka Barrage in West Bengal, a few miles upstream from the Bangladesh border.
Two broken sluice gates gave West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee enough pretext to block a deal that would have allowed India land transit through Bangladesh, connecting the north-eastern states with multiple road and rail links to the rest of India. Once the Bangladeshi negotiators realised that Ms Banerjee would block a water-sharing deal that they wanted, they took the land transit deal that India wanted. Not only did Ms Banerjee wreck a grand bilateral deal, she has also weakened Sheikh Hasina politically.
The United Progressive Alliance government cannot escape its share of the blame. Surely, if a deal of such strategic significance was under negotiation, then it should have kept Ms Banerjee on board. On a matter like this, the Congress party should have invested more effort in hammering out a domestic consensus.
Where do we go from here? Urgent attention is needed to arrest the drift. Earlier this year a video of Border Security Force personnel brutalising a Bangladeshi prompted calls for a boycott of Indian products. One incident like this can undermine years of diplomacy and political investment.
If New Delhi does not act purposefully now, there is a risk that political compulsions – yes, others can have them too – will compel Sheikh Hasina to step back. Her overtures are driven by her sense of promoting Bangladesh’s interests. Analysts in Dhaka point out that land transit is the only bilateral issue where they have strong cards. It is understandable that they should insist on getting a mutually acceptable water-sharing deal in return for allowing India land transit. If Sheikh Hasina loses the next elections, we can expect the next government to set the clock back on bilateral relations all over again.
The window of opportunity to put bilateral relations with Bangladesh on a stable path will close in around a year. New Delhi should use the symbolism around Dhaka’s gesture in honouring General Jacob, D P Dhar, Bhupen Hazarika, among others, to move quickly on a grand deal with Bangladesh before election fever takes over the country. The heroes of 1971 could lead the two countries to yet another victory.
The author is a founder and fellow for geopolitics at the Takshashila Institution