Nitish returns, again

Talk of his national role is premature

There is rarely a dull moment in Indian politics. Nitish Kumar took oath as chief minister of Bihar for the eighth time on Wednesday, a day after resigning from the post. On Tuesday, Mr Kumar and his party, the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), walked away from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and decided to form a new government with the Mahagathbandhan, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, and some other smaller parties. Going by the numbers in the Bihar Assembly, the new Nitish Kumar government should not face any problems. However, in today’s political environment, the numbers in the house can change very quickly, as has been witnessed in several states in recent times — Maharashtra being the latest example. Political alignments and formations that look stable on paper often prove to be extremely fragile. Thus, the real question in this context is: What happens to governance?

Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and JD(U) contested the 2020 Assembly elections together, discomfort in the alliance was visible even before the first vote was cast. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Chirag Paswan, which was part of the NDA at the Centre, decided to field candidates in seats where the JD(U) was contesting. The move is estimated to have affected the outcomes in over two dozen seats and diminished the JD(U)’s tally. Although Mr Kumar became chief minister, it was not a smooth ride, with the BJP having a significantly higher number of seats. It was also alleged that the BJP was trying to break the JD(U), a charge that has been denied by the BJP. Apparently, fearing a Shiv Sena-like split, the JD(U) left the NDA. While the JD(U) may have opted for what was in its best interests for now, it’s unlikely to be easy working with the RJD either, given that it has a much larger presence in the house. Meanwhile, the state is likely to witness a reorientation of priorities and it’s reasonable to assume that some of the ongoing projects and programmes will suffer. Also, it’s not easy for political parties to focus on governance with a consistent threat to survival.

At the national level, however, the shift in Bihar is being seen as a ray of hope by the larger opposition. Some commentators have also argued that Mr Kumar could emerge as a consensus opposition candidate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Although theoretically, anything is possible in politics, this may not happen for a variety of reasons. For instance, Mr Kumar walked out of the NDA not because of differences but to ensure his own political survival. Further, in the national context, the JD(U) is still a small party and may not be able to offer a sizable number of seats. More importantly, as things stand today, it is unlikely that a united opposition will be able to project a candidate at all, which is essential for it to have any chance. The nature of the Lok Sabha elections has changed completely since 2014. Although this can affect its tally in Bihar, the implications of the political shift and problems for the BJP are likely to remain limited to the state. The BJP had struggled to project a face against Mr Kumar in the past and this could remain a challenge for the party.