For the Congress party, there’s no getting around it: in this round of Assembly elections, it has been roundly beaten. Uttar Pradesh, in particular, was a high-stakes contest. The party claims that its general secretary, Rahul Gandhi, created a “favourable climate” that its state unit failed to take advantage of. Yet that does not absolve the national leadership, including Mr Gandhi, of blame in failing to understand that elections are won through organisation, not well-attended rallies. In its failure to improve its statewide network sufficiently to increase its share of seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP), and in its failure to capitalise on the stasis that Punjab has suffered under the chief ministership of Parkash Singh Badal – who was first elected chief minister (CM) in 1970 – the Congress has shown that it is out of ideas. The omens are not good. It is now likely to come under more political pressure from its alliance partners, which may well sound the death knell for economic reforms. Politically, it must prioritise the discovery and promotion of strong, state-level leaders around whom voters can coalesce. And in terms of policy advocacy, it must re-forge its appeal as a party of governance and of reform. It appears the aam admi expects no less.
In this, it can learn from the Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP. The majority the SP has achieved appears built on the expectation that this time it will provide a stable foundation of governance on which the voters of India’s largest state can seek to fulfil their individual aspirations. The campaign the SP ran was positive and forward-looking; the Congress, trying to take credit for welfarist central schemes and trumpeting “special packages” for Bundelkhand and Muslim weavers, clearly got its approach wrong. In Punjab and Uttarakhand, too, the electorate has responded to the promise of leaders who appear progressive. This is obvious in the vote share of Manpreet Badal’s party, sufficient to deny the Congress victory in several marginal Punjab constituencies. It is visible in how an unpopular Bharatiya Janata Party government (BJP) in Uttarakhand managed to avert a rout through the timely replacement of its chief minister. The replacement CM, B C Khanduri, worked visibly towards improving the transparency and efficiency of his administration — and continued to do so till the very last week before the counting. Indeed, the other “national party”, the BJP, should be somewhat chastened in that its performance in UP was below expectations, and in Punjab poor — it has ridden back to power on the coat-tails of the Shiromani Akali Dal there. Loud pronouncements of a move to a two-party dispensation in India have, once again, been shown up as wishful thinking.
Observers, and investors, will hope that the ruling dispensation at the Centre will learn the correct lessons before Parliament’s Budget session starts on March 12. On the one hand, an electoral debacle for the Congress might just be the saving of UPA-II — if, that is, the noisy, populist voices in the coalition’s largest party realise themselves discredited and fall silent. Its prime minister and finance minister could then be allowed to get back to the business of reform. However, it is unquestionable that the Congress is in a political bind now. Its space for manoeuvre has shrunk and its obstreperous allies have been empowered. In this, it has only itself to blame; but India’s citizens will pay the price, if sensible economic policy turns out to be the casualty of a weakened ruling party.