One year into his presidency, Barack Obama is faced with the difficult business of changing tack, may be even re-inventing himself. His popularity ratings have plunged, his Democratic party has lost elections in shoo-in states like Massachusetts and New Jersey, not to mention a swing state like Virginia, and his health care plan (so far the cornerstone of his presidency) is in jeopardy. The economic pundits fear a double-dip recession, and his international diplomacy has little to show — other than reducing anti-American feeling in some quarters. His China visit yielded nothing, the Europeans have given him cold comfort, his Cairo speech has done little to change the Islamic world’s view of America, and his Afghan troop “surge” was badly handled through a simultaneous announcement of a date for starting withdrawal. In other words, being the nice guy on the international stage may have taken the edge off the negative emotions sparked by his predecessor, but there is little else to show. His arm-wrestling at the Copenhagen climate change summit did yield the Copenhagen Accord, but it remains to be seen whether the Senate will approve the climate change Bill, without which he has no cards to deal. And on the revival of the Doha round of trade talks, of course, he has shown no initiative at all — perhaps after a careful reading of the domestic mood.
In part, the problem is that Mr Obama is presiding over a country that is in relative decline on the global stage, and economically challenged at home. It is hard to be scoring well on a fundamentally difficult wicket. Median incomes have not risen in a decade, personal wealth levels are static, and Americans are being forced to spend less and save more, at a time when unemployment is at a higher level than at any time since the Great Depression. The domestic challenges are doubly difficult because the middle ground in politics has virtually disappeared, and in any case Mr Obama is seen as being too “liberal”, or Left-wing. The voter revolt in Massachusetts is said to be a response in part to an over-ambitious health care plan that will add to the size and role of government.
The pundits also talk of a problem of style. Mr Obama is seen as being too cool and distant, a change from the campaigner who used words emotively in order to connect with voters. The US president is still good at set-piece speeches, but these don’t deliver the “change” that the country was led to expect. And now that Democrats control only 59 seats in the Senate (one short of the 60 required to steamroll legislation), Mr Obama finds himself in the uncomfortable situation of having to negotiate deals with the Republicans — who remain fundamentally hostile to his presidency. Mr Obama’s difficult task now is to seek a political middle ground that is hard to find, and not play to his base. This will mean messy compromises. But he is a skillful politician, and may yet find a way to do this early enough to prevent a Democratic wipe-out in the November elections.