Numerically stable in Goa, Manipur

This much is true: That the decisive victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Manipur and Goa, both known to have an endemic defection problem, has eliminated arbitrage by smaller parties and ensured stability in politics.

The unintended beneficiary of this is Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant. It took nearly six hours after then chief minister Manohar Parrikar’s death to settle on Mr Sawant. In the 2017 Assembly elections, the BJP got only 13 seats, four fewer than the Congress’s 17, in a house of 40. It was able to form a government largely because of Congress lethargy and the special persuasive powers of Nitin Gadkari and Parrikar. Unspecified promises were made by Parrikar to Ramkrishna “Sudin” Dhavalikar of the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Vijai Sardesai, mentor of the Goa Forward Party. After Parrikar died, they decided to support Mr Sawant and were rewarded with deputy chief ministership. Goa at one point had a 12 member-council of ministers — and two deputy chief ministers!

But within weeks, a group of 10 Congress MLAs merged with the BJP, increasing its strength to 27. As Mr Sawant now no longer needed Mr Sardesai, he sacked him.
 

Now, he needs him even less. Within hours of the full result, which saw 20 seats in the BJP kitty in the house, the MGP offered “unconditional support” to the BJP, hoping to get a ministership or two. This is a bit rich, considering the MGP was helping the opposition to the BJP till the very last moment — it fought the election in an alliance with the Trinamool Congress. The “unconditional support” was contested vigorously by BJP MLAs. It is not hard to understand why: Any positions in the government to “outsiders” who were not even needed would mean fewer positions for the BJP. Mr Dhavalikar had changed his tune after the results came out. “We are natural allies. When the BJP made a start in the state, we were the ones who helped and invested. We go a long way back. Even today also, I have equations with Nitin Gadkari, Devendra Fadnavis, and other BJP leaders,” he said, having supported one of the BJP’s bitterest critics during the elections.

In Manipur, the BJP’s growth and development have been largely at the expense of the Congress. Although the Congress emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats after the 2017 elections, the BJP formed the government with support from a group of “friendly” parties, including the National People’s Party (NPP), the regional party that leads a coalition government under Conrad Sangma in neighbouring Meghalaya. Exits from the Congress continued. The most notable was state party chief Govindas Konthoujam, a former minister and six-time Congress MLA from Bishnupur, who crossed the floor last August and joined the BJP. But the centre of gravity of the government kept shifting because the NPP realised that it was the kingmaker and could topple the government anytime it wanted.

This time there is no such danger. The BJP has managed 32 seats in the Assembly of 60, which puts it comfortably in the saddle. What is notable about the result is that the NPP has emerged as the second-largest party with seven seats, ahead even of the Congress. This makes Mr Sangma a force to reckon with in the Northeast. But also, it puts him firmly in the opposition in Manipur. Presenting itself as an alternative to the national parties, the NPP projected itself as an independent, pan-Northeastern party (it has some presence in Arunachal Pradesh too). It took a stand on issues concerning the region, such as the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) or the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). So should we expect a more vociferous NPP now, more vocal in its opposition to the Central government?

For the moment, in Meghalaya, the BJP and NPP are allies. That didn’t stop the NPP from campaigning against the BJP in Manipur and even offering seats to rebel BJP candidates. Left to himself, now that he doesn’t need the NPP, Chief Minister hopeful Biren Singh would like to drop it from the government altogether. But that’s a space that has to be watched. While keeping the NPP out will mean more ministerships to BJP colleagues, keeping it in government will mean the BJP will own the opposition space as well. Who wouldn’t want that?

This election means less chance of smaller parties dictating terms to BJP state governments. But it also means a BJP that will tend to be less accommodative of the opposition. In many-hued Goa and Manipur, that could be dangerous.