This could be the end of international cricket in Pakistan. The attack on Sri Lankan cricketers on their way to a Test match in Lahore has told cricketers around the world that it is not safe to go to Pakistan. Sri Lanka in particular will regret having moved in when India cancelled its tour, in the wake of an assessment of the security situation after the November 26 attack on Mumbai. Denied tours by visiting teams (there were none in all of 2008), the Pakistan cricket board will be starved of funds. Fans who cannot see international cricketers will drift to other games, and youngsters will find little incentive to devote their playing years to a sport that is in such trouble and which may no longer offer financial rewards. The situation is made all the more serious by the fact that Sri Lanka has no quarrel of any kind with Pakistan, and the Sri Lankan cricketers are neither Christians, Jews or Hindus (three religions with which Islamists could be said to have a quarrel). It was violence of the most senseless kind, and therefore even more lethal in its consequences.
Pakistan will not suffer alone. India too will feel the backlash. There will be questions over the 2011 World Cup, for which both countries were joint hosts. International cricketers will wonder about the wisdom of taking part in the second season of the Indian Premier League, due to start next month. Cricket boards in other countries, smarting under the new-found assertiveness of India’s cricket authorities, may use the occasion to get their own back. All this without any attack on cricketers in India. Should one occur, then the many attractions of coming and playing in India will be instantly neutralised. Indeed, even without an attack, the security risk will make every cricket field an armed encampment, and every cricket fan wonder whether to stay at home and watch the game on TV.
The problems go beyond cricket, of course. It is evident that the Pakistani state has created an Islamist Frankenstein that has turned on its creator. The Taliban were supposed to look outward, and take over Afghanistan. Other jihadi organisations were supposed to export terror to Jammu & Kashmir and the rest of India. None of them was supposed to turn inward and focus the assault on Pakistan itself. But that is what has happened, and it is Pakistan that is now being subjected to “death by a thousand cuts”. Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated, and Pervez Musharraf was lucky to survive. Swat has been taken over, and Karachi is being infiltrated. The middle classes in the troubled areas are leaving for safer places, and the economy is being kept afloat with external aid. If this trend is not arrested and reversed, then Pakistan could either face a jihadi takeover, or civil war.
One thing is for certain: battle has been joined for the soul of Pakistan. And however much the external world might like to influence the future course of events, this is a battle whose outcome will be determined domestically. The majority of Pakistanis, however much they may have problems with India, are not jihadists and prefer to follow a moderate version of Islam. In election after election, Pakistan has voted overwhelmingly for the moderate parties. However, Pakistani governments have been weak and unsatisfactory, while the Pak army has seen its search for state security lead it to jihadists whom it has sought to use as tools for various stratagems. That singular folly now presents the country (and India) with some dire scenarios for the future.