Over-reaction to forecast

The Met's new monsoon forecast not as bad as it looks

The monsoon forecast update issued by the Met office, projecting total rainfall during the season at 93 per cent of the long-period average (with an error margin of 4 per cent), should not be cause for alarm. Instead, it should put to rest the speculation about an impending drought. Admittedly, the new estimate is lower than the 96 per cent forecast in April, and there will be pockets of the country that will face distress, even as specific industries that depend on rural demand will find that they face leaner times. But at the macro-economic level, the new level of rainfall that has been forecast is adequate for crop growth, which gets influenced more by the distribution of rainfall over space and time than the total precipitation level during the four-month rainy season. Taking into account the error margin, the actual rainfall should be between 89 per cent and 97 per cent of the normal level. This cannot be considered a monsoon wash-out, as has been done by a section of the media. Nor can it be viewed as a big drag on the economy as it slips into recovery mode, considering that agriculture’s share in GDP is now less than 18 per cent.

Indeed, the monsoon update has some positive features for agriculture. It says that, after a prolonged hiatus, the monsoon has revived and is likely to gain in strength in the next couple of weeks. As a result, it is likely to cover the bulk of the country, up to and including the parched Central Indian belt, spanning from Gujarat in the west to Madhya Pradesh in the middle and Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Orissa in the east, by the end of June. The rest of the country, notably the key agricultural bowl of the north-west, comprising Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, is expected to get the monsoon by the first week of July, which is more or less normal for this region. If the forecast is correct, what it means is that the worst news is now behind us. Admittedly, there is distress in central India and parts of Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. But with the onset of the rains, farm operations should now get going in these areas as well, though some shrinkage in yields due to belated planting cannot be ruled out.

Another reassuring indication in the revised monsoon forecast is the projection of rainfall in July (93 per cent) and August (101 per cent), when the bulk of the kharif sowing takes place. The region-wise break-up of the anticipated precipitation also indicates good rainfall of between 92 per cent and 99 per cent of the normal level, in almost all regions except the north-west which may receive only around 81 per cent of the normal. The projected 19 per cent shortfall in the north-west is not a cause for as much concern as it might be in any other region, because this particular region has extensive irrigation infrastructure and farmers do not rely solely on the rains for raising their crops. On the whole, though the performance of the monsoon may not be perfect this year, it is unlikely to be a disaster story. But, considering the proverbial uncertainties of the weather, the government should stay alert with contingency plans.