UBS: Peace is supposed to pay a dividend. But for Switzerland, an agreement to settle a war with the US will probably come with a hefty bill. The two countries have reached a tentative accord in the US government’s prosecution of UBS over helping customers evade taxes. Switzerland’s biggest bank will be happy to have the case behind it, even if there’s an extra hit to add to a previous admission of guilt to criminal charges, a $780 million penalty and the release of a few hundred customer accounts. UBS shares bounced 5 per cent on the scant news. But it doesn’t mean sunshine and rainbows lie ahead.
Although nothing concrete was announced on Friday, an additional multi-billion-dollar payout can’t be excluded. More important, it was sounding like a few thousand more client names would be turned over to the US Internal Revenue Service. That would be less than the 52,000 the tax authorities have been demanding – but it would still signal a rare peacetime capitulation by one sovereign nation to another.
In Switzerland, bank secrecy is more than sacred tradition – it’s the law. If the country agreed to break it – even if agreement allows something less humiliating – the implications would be severe. UBS has been one of the biggest losers of the financial crisis. But its $50 billion of woes didn’t cause its homeland the same sort of harm as losses in outsized banking systems did in Iceland or even Belgium. Over the long haul, though, this case could do more harm to Switzerland than all the trading losses. The US and other governments will feel emboldened to chase tax evaders. Every bank will face tougher oversight. The coming era of less secrecy will make Swiss banking a lesser industry.