Peace returns to MP

PLAIN POLITICS

At last, peace is likely to break out in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unit of Madhya Pradesh. In the past two years, after the party rode to victory in the Assembly elections, there hasn't been a day of tranquillity in the government. Now, with Shivraj Singh Chauhan being put firmly in the saddle, hopefully there will be more press conferences in Bhopal about Madhya Pradesh than about errant MLAs' activities.

Actually, Chauhan had always been envisaged as the chief minister, right from the days of the Assembly campaign. He was fielded from Raghogarh, against former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh, so that later the party could be told that he was the one who defeated the CM and, therefore, should represent the BJP in the top job. The BJP was aware that Chauhan "" who is from the other backward castes (he is a Kurmi) "" could prove to be a challenger to fellow OBC politician Uma Bharati, in the future. But the thinking was that Bharati was more valuable in the centre rather than as a state-level leader. So Chauhan's challenge would be manageable.

But Chauhan lost that election. Bharati was made to look as if she'd always been CM-designate, but in fact that was not so. The leadership of the BJP toyed with the idea of getting Chauhan to become CM and getting him to run from some other constituency. But not only would this have caused protests in the BJP Legislature Party (BLP) but also attracted the charge of imposing an "outsider" on members of the BLP. The idea was dropped and Bharati became CM. Against this background, it is not hard to understand why Bharati scuttled his chances when, having been ordered to quit her post following chargesheeting in the Hubli mosque case, she had to resign. She proposed Babulal Gaur's name because she thought he would be a pliant CM, merely a stopgap arrangement to keep her seat warm for her until she returned. But Gaur had his own views about running Madhya Pradesh. When Bharati sensed political ground was being cut from under her very feet, she decided to get her supporters to start a campaign in her favour. That has ended in a whimper.

Chauhan is not new to power politics. He's represented Vidisha "" once contested by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee "" four times in the Lok Sabha. He succeeded Bharati as the president of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha during which he displayed exemplary organisational skills. So he is not just a follower of Bharati but a leader in his own right. He was the party prabhari (in charge) of Haryana in the Lok Sabha elections where, although the party lost badly (for other reasons), Chauhan's positive role in getting all groups in the Haryana BJP together to work for the party was duly noted in the discussions of the Election Committee. At 46, Chauhan is also a member of the BJP's Central Parliamentary Board, the body that puts the final seal of approval on names for various elections, something that evokes envy in Chauhan's colleagues. But BJP leaders say he is methodical and hardworking, does his homework and his position in the CPB is absolutely justified.

What is as yet untested is Chauhan's administrative acumen, for he has never been a minister, let alone a chief minister. Babulal Gaur had announced that the demand and supply gap of power in the state would be bridged to the extent of 1,500 MW by 2007 and that at least 4,000 km of roads would be added to the state roads network. Neither has happened. Half the BJP's five-year term is over. Voters are waiting to see results.

Much has been said about the damage Bharati will be able to do to the BJP in the state, given the double advantage she enjoys as a woman and an OBC. But much of the current discourse on Madhya Pradesh is being informed by politics in Bihar. Madhya Pradesh is not Bihar and caste coalitions there are not the same as caste coalitions in Bihar. While in Bihar, the backbone of anti-Congress politics were the OBCs, in Madhya Pradesh in 1984, under Arjun Singh's chief ministership, a Ramji Mahajan committee was set up to consider upper caste reservation and review reservations for backward classes. This became a ploy to co-opt the backward classes from above into the Congress. When Digvijay Singh became chief minister, he tried to expand this by creating a coalition of Rajputs and dalits. The BJP, reacting to this shift, fielded leaders like Bharati and Kalyan Singh, part of the post-Mandal crop of backward class BJP leaders. The packaging was right but didn't necessarily represent a mass base. So Bharati, minus the BJP, represents very little.

Chauhan has another big advantage in his favour. He has the unequivocal backing of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The Sangh is very strong in Madhya Pradesh, and in fact, the Congress government of MP (then C P & Berar) was the first in the country to enact a law to outlaw religious conversions based on the Justice Niyogi Commission Report. That was as far back as 1951, indicating that even the Congress had to bow before the pressure mounted by the Sangh. Chauhan is modest, gentle and soft-spoken "" representatives from all groups in the BJP testify to this. So he is unlikely to face much dissidence.

It is possible that Chauhan will trip up on administrative matters. But the beleaguered BJP can expect a respite from internal bickering. Optimists in the party say the succession question in the Madhya Pradesh unit has been settled for at least the next 15 years. They are fervent in thanking God for this.