PM Modi's actions indicate that he may have lost his political timing

Much of what the Modi govt is doing and saying today should have been done much earlier

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always been able to surprise his adversaries by suddenly changing the political agenda, masterfully redirecting public attention while the media obligingly falls in line. Of late though his timing seems to be a bit off. 

Many of his recent moves such as reservation for economically weak among the upper castes, dismissal of feuding officers in the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and preparations for announcing a universal basic income for farmers and the unemployed, might have proved effective had he made them earlier. Now, so close to the general election, they seem like afterthoughts prompted by the BJP’s electoral defeats in recent state elections. 

Having maintained a deliberate silence on the Supreme Court verdict of September 2018, lifting the ban on women of menstruating age from entering the Sabarimala temple, he criticised it last week in Kerela describing it as a matter of faith. Had he spoken out earlier it would have rallied his supporters and energised party workers while they were still getting a campaign against the judgment off the ground. 

Prime Minister Modi also seems to have fumbled his timing in the removal of CBI director Alok Verma through the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet in a meeting held at 2.30 AM, giving it the flavour of the sensational. The same hastiness was evident in removing the CBI director once again after he was reinstated by the Supreme Court. It is also inexplicable that he has now removed the Additional Director of the CBI Rakesh Asthana who was the root cause of internal feuding in the organisation in the first place. 

The decision to file a chargesheet against students of Delhi’s premier Jawaharlal Nehru University - full three years after the event - was truly inept. The inadequately prepared charge-sheet was rejected by the Delhi High Court because of procedural flaws. Even had it been brought to trial it is doubtful whether the BJP’s trope of projecting liberal intellectuals as “anti-national” would stick three years down the line.

Politically, the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill was fatally mistimed for the BJP. The Bill seeks to fast-track citizenship for all but Muslim illegal immigrants from the countries abutting India.

Up to the time this Bill was introduced, the BJP had notched political victories in six out of the eight states in the north-east. It had formed governments in Tripura, Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh – and was part of coalition governments in Meghalaya and Nagaland. Assamese sub-regionalism had been successfully stoked through the National Register of Citizens (NRC) exercise to identify illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. Although the NRC exercise was shoddy the subtle hints that illegal migrants would be relocated had energised the BJP’s ‘core’ Hindu vote.

But when the Modi government suddenly pushed the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016 and it was passed in the Lok Sabha, reactions in the north-east became hostile overnight. Not just Assam but the entire Northeast protested as one. Five youngsters were injured in police firing in Tripura, and in Assam the iconic public intellectual and Sahitya Akademi award winner 80-year-old Hiren Gohain, human-rights activist Akhil Gogoi and journalist Manjit Mahanta got slapped with sedition charges.

Long term political ally Asom Gana Parishad withdrew its ministers from its coalition government with the BJP. Other allies of the BJP in the North-East from Meghalaya to Nagaland are demanding withdrawal of the Bill. The BJP which had hoped to increase its parliamentary tally in the region now may not even be able to retain its present strength.

Other ill-timed initiatives are unlikely to burnish the image of the Modi government. It did nothing to appoint a Lokpal despite the Lokpal and Lokayukta Act being passed in 2013. Now it has been directed by the Supreme Court to finalise a name by end February. Should it do so, the BJP will be accused of appointing a Lokpal of its choice who will have a fixed tenure of 5 years. The new CBI director also will have to be appointed soon. Filling these key posts virtually back-to-back will not bring credit to the Modi government as it becomes open to charges that it is positioning partisan candidates in important positions to protect itself should the BJP lose the general election.

Speculation that the government might address agrarian distress before the elections with a basic income scheme of Rs. 4,000 per acre per season for farmers only makes one ask why the scheme could not have been announced earlier as a salutary response to farmers’ protests in the summer of June 2017. A universal basic income for the unemployed and the aged or increase in the income tax exemption limit rumoured to be part of its interim budget, will equally be judged against a backdrop of growing cynicism among the people. 

The governments’ decision to provide 10 per cent quota in education and state employment for economically weaker sections in the general category is a prime example of measures that are little more than theatrics. Witness how the Constitutional amendment it required was pushed through in just two days. Yet it fails to enthuse because its catchment area is nearly 99 per cent of the general category. In addition, the government is actually cutting jobs and has refused to fund the expansion of educational infrastructure that would be necessary to implement the quota. All of this assuming that the Suprme Court does strike down the hastily formulated amendment as violating the basic structure of the Constitution.

The shortcomings of this measure suggest that the government’s thinking on equity is neither strategic nor does it run deep. It was just a tactical move after upper caste voters made their alienation apparent in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh elections. 

Politician inevitably try to time policy measures to maximise their political benefits. The prequel to the general elections is usually the window for such announcements. However, the recent announcements of Prime Minister Modi and his government indicate a loss of political deftness. Much of what he is doing and saying today should have been done and said much earlier.

The writer is a journalist based in Delhi. He tweets @bharatitis