Political bullet-proofing: PM Modi declares third term intentions

In an unusual move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that he would contest for a third term in 2024. In what was a virtual public address, he responded to the remark of a senior Opposition leader who had apparently told him that being prime minister for two terms was enough of an achievement. Modi declared he had absolutely no intention of slowing down.

What could have compelled Prime Minister Modi to bring forward his candidature for 2024? He faces no challenge to his leadership within his party. There is no obvious challenger from the Opposition either. And there are still two years to go before the next general election. With a series of recent state elections under his belt, including Uttar Pradesh, what turf could he be protecting?

Within the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), many senior ministerial colleagues might aspire for the top job, but they must be acutely aware that they stand no chance as long as his election winning streak continues. This applies as much to Nitin Gadkari as to Rajnath Singh or Amit Shah.

Nitin Gadkari is popular, competent and close to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). A resident of Nagpur and a Brahmin to boot – these qualities endear him to the Nagpur mandarins. However, Modi has pursued their Hindutva agenda with singular focus and kept them financially secure.

Rajnath Singh laid down his arms quite some time ago. Even in his home state of Uttar Pradesh, he was replaced as a Thakur leader by the firebrand Yogi Adityanath. Singh could not secure a ministerial berth in UP for his son Pankaj Singh despite winning the assembly elections with a historic margin of 244,000 votes.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah may be known as the second-most powerful person in the government but the best he can hope for is to be the chief minister of Gujarat. But Shah has not been allowed to have a free run in the state where his candidate for the top job, Vijay Rupani, was judged incapable and removed. Shah’s political power is essentially derivative in nature. He is no challenge for a third run by the incumbent prime minister.

There is also no obvious challenge from the Opposition. Disarray in the Congress continues with no signs of organisational order or focus. The regional leaders remain regional. As her failed foray into Goa showed, Mamata Banerjee has little appeal outside West Bengal except to pockets of Bengali population in Tripura in Assam and  scattered thinly across the Northeastern states. Once a formidable force, after his illness Sharad Pawar’s ability to sway crowds has suffered. Neither K Chandrasekhar Rao, Jaganmohan Reddy nor Navin Patnaik have any appeal outside their states. They are also not on the same page. Arvind Kejriwal is even more of a loner whom most non-BJP political parties will find difficult to trust.

Moreover, the “rule” that those above 75-years-old must retire from politics will not apply to Prime Minister Modi before 2025. It was enunciated only to get past his seniors in the party, L K Advani and Murali Manohar Joshi. It neither exists in the BJP’s constitution nor in the RSS.

The only way a challenge will arise is if a series of state election defeats precede the Lok Sabha election. Perhaps one state is more important than any other here. A defeat in Gujarat state elections, due at the end of this year, would be disastrous for the prime minister. His leadership may not remain unchallenged if the BJP loses in Gujarat.

A defeat in Gujarat could also lead to the questioning of his role in winning the Uttar Pradesh elections. He would be forced to compromise with his cabinet colleagues and even bend to the outlandish demands of the Hindutva organisations as they assert their autonomy.

It is significant that he spoke about his third term while addressing the beneficiaries of Gujarat government’s scheme for widows, the elderly and destitute citizens at Bharuch. In preparing for the Gujarat elections, he has sent a clear message to voters in the state – that in effect their vote will not only be for a BJP government in the state but also for the continuation of a prime minister from Gujarat at the Centre.

Consider once again his exact words. Prime Minister Modi claimed that the Opposition leader who suggested that his career was nearing retirement, “…does not know that Modi is made of different mettle..., he is made from the soil of Guajarat. That’s why I do not believe in taking it easy, like I have done what I could and now I should rest. No, my dream is saturation, 100 percent coverage of the benefit schemes.”

He made sure to signal to the beneficiaries of government freebies that his agenda of providing welfare benefits to them would need him to be in command for state largesse to continue. It was perhaps also an appeal to the voters who abandoned the party in the 2017 state elections and voted for the Congress.

Aware of the importance of winning Gujarat, the BJP is not leaving anything to chance despite the disarray in the Congress in Gujarat. Or else, it would not have changed horses midstream one year before the elections, replacing an unpopular Vijay Rupani with Anandiben Patel’s trusted lieutenant and a first-time legislator, Bhupendra Patel. Under Rupani’s leadership, in the 2017 state elections, the BJP had recorded its worst ever performance in recent decades bagging 99 out of 182 seats with the Congress getting 77.

The BJP’s wooing of Hardik Patel by withdrawing criminal cases against also suggests that it does not see the Gujarat elections as a cakewalk. Patel is clearly playing along given his statements praising the “terrific decision making” abilities of the BJP leadership, declaring himself a “Rambhakt” and openly criticising the Congress leadership even while he is still Working President of the party.

Prime Minister Modi by declaring his intention for a third term is setting the Gujarat narrative and politically bullet-proofing himself.