Pramod Mahajan and BJP

Perhaps the worst need not be feared any longer, for Pramod Mahajan's condition remains stable, even if it is not improving. Since he has survived for six days after the shooting, the chances of eventual recovery must be assumed to have got better, though his doctors say little to give much hope. However, surviving the attack is one thing, proper recovery from multiple and serious injuries is another, and the ability to return to a fully active public life something else altogether. On present reckoning, therefore, the BJP may have to come to terms with the fact that it has (at least for some time) lost the full range of services that Mr Mahajan was able to offer before he was shot by his brother in his home.

Mr Mahajan is that rare person whom every political party needs: an organiser par excellence, a fund-raiser, and an orator. And judging by the reactions of the party faithful at all levels, as well as the trooping in and out of hospital by important personages from every walk of life, Mr Mahajan had already acquired a formidable following as well as a strong network of important relationships. True, he has been mentioned in controversies of one sort or another, putting him at a disadvantage vis-à-vis others hoping to inherit the mantle of party leadership; and he is not exactly the favourite of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Also, the party did lose the last general election as well as the Maharashtra assembly election when he was in charge of vital matters. But not many amongst even his detractors are willing to blame only him for this. After all, senior party stalwarts were at the helm of affairs.

All things considered, therefore, this is one more in a long list of setbacks for a party that, two short years ago, seemed monarch of all it surveyed. The list of the BJP's woes since then is too wearisome to recount here. Suffice it to say that the incapacitating of Pramod Mahajan has knocked the party back on its heels. While the BJP is an ideology-driven party, leaders always make a difference. And the fact is that Mr Mahajan""warts, charm and all""has been a major prospect as a leader of the post-Vajpayee-Advani era. Atal Bihari Vajpayee called him his Laxman and had more or less anointed him as his choice for party president in December 2006, when the term of the current president, Rajnath Singh, is to come to an end. That script will now have to change. L K Advani might be hoping for another innings at the helm, but few in the party would look forward to that. So, if not Mr Mahajan, it will have to be either a second term for the incumbent, or someone else.

Amongst those in the reckoning must be Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh himself, with Narendra Modi as a dark horse who should not be ruled out, though the NDA's allies may find him unacceptable. Each of these, though, has his or her limitations. Sushma Swaraj is of the wrong gender as far as the RSS is concerned and that will matter. Rajnath Singh is a UP thakur, which can be a political liability in a party that has been wanting to reach out to the backward castes. And Mr Jaitley has his own health problems. In short, if the BJP is looking for natural choices, none is available.